土を金に変える：乾燥気候下の農業経路における土壌炭素のビジネスケース

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🔬研究者:乾燥地農業における土壌炭素隔離の作物別定量と不確実性評価の手法を、データ乏しい地域への適用例として参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:農業・食品企業がScope 3の農業排出や炭素クレジット調達を検討する際、作物選択が隔離量と収益性を左右する点を事業判断に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:炭素クレジット制度や気候スマート農業政策の設計において、作物別の隔離ポテンシャルと経済性のスクリーニング評価を政策立案の基礎情報として活用できる。

Introduction Agricultural carbon sequestration offers considerable potential for mitigating anthropogenic climate change, particularly in the low-organic-carbon soils of the Middle East. This study presents a foundational scenario-based assessment of soil carbon sequestration and economic feasibility. Materials and methods Crop production and market datasets from Jordanian statistics (1998–2023) were used to estimate potential soil carbon sequestration and economic performance. Using benchmarks from literature in comparable agroecological regions, four soil carbon management practices were evaluated across multiple crops for their carbon storage potential using Monte Carlo uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity of economic performance was assessed under optimistic/pessimistic scenarios. Results Among the evaluated practices, the highest carbon sequestration rate was achieved through increased Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), reaching a maximum of 27.44 metric tons of CO₂ per hectare per year (tCO₂/ha/year) under the high scenario for cucumbers. In contrast, barley showed the highest sequestration rate at 0.45 tCO₂/ha/year under increased SOC in the high scenario. Sensitivity analysis showed that ±20% uncertainty in the management coefficients resulted in practice-specific changes of 1.11 tCO₂/ha/year for increased SOC and 0.46 tCO₂/ha/year for improved cropland management. Horticultural crops, particularly cucumbers and lemons, exhibited the highest sequestration rates and strongest responses to management interventions. Field crops such as wheat, barley, and olives demonstrated lower, more stable sequestration rates. Economic analysis revealed that cucumbers, grapes, potatoes, and Open-field farming (OFF) tomatoes achieved the highest tri-pillar performance (net and adjusted profits and break-even cost) alongside effective carbon sequestration. These findings highlight that crop choice is a primary determinant of both crop profitability and sequestrated carbon potential and feasibility, with significant implications for climate-smart agriculture, carbon credit mechanisms, and intensification strategies in data-scarce regions. Study limitations While empirical field validation remains a future priority, this model-based study provides a screening-level theoretical baseline to guide targeted research and investment in arid agricultural systems.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1966265first seen 2026-11-07 04:43:21