Correction: Impact of fossil energy consumption on economic growth in carbon-resource economies: a Random Forest approach

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🔬研究者:Methodological example of applying Random Forest to energy-economics nexus; useful for comparative studies.

🏛政策担当者:Insights for policy design in fossil-fuel-dependent economies regarding energy efficiency and diversification.

Fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal, have long been responsible for developing modern economies. Since the Industrial Revolution, these fuels have generated the bulk of energy for industry, transportation and domestic use, and have determined both the pace and structure of economic growth.While fossil energy plays a dominant role globally, its importance varies across countries depending on resource endowments and economic structure. Some economies are more heavily reliant on fossil fuels, forming what can be described as carbon-resource or coalbased economic systems.While renewable sources of energy have gained prominence in the last several decades, regarding most coal-based economies, fossil fuels dominate the consumption of most such economies. Economic activity in most countries relying on coal is increasingly dependent on access and cost-effectiveness of fossil fuels, and, therefore, closely ties energy consumption to the processes of economic growth.Analysis of the economic consequences of consumption of fossil energy is particularly relevant and critical in view of worldwide concerns over climate change and the issue of sustainability. Energy-intensive development of such economies in the future hinges greatly on how countries manage to maintain both consumption of energy and economic growth in a balanced manner, balancing in mind, for instance, minimizing environmental strains in the face of growing concerns over climate change and its consequences. Hence, analysis of fossil energy consumption and its links to economic growth in a proper and thorough manner is of utmost importance both at a theoretical and at a pragmatic level.In this study, the term "carbon-resource economy" refers to economies that are highly dependent on fossil fuel extraction, production, or consumption, where fossil energy plays a dominant role in economic activity and growth.The aim of this investigation is to utilize a model-based analysis to explore the nexus between fossil energy consumption and economic growth in economies with a base in coal.By utilizing a Random Forest model, it is facilitated to assess and quantify the connection between trends in consumption of energy and economic performance. Analysis in this case is conducted utilizing a disaggregated dataset in the World Bank's World Development Indicators database, which furnishes reliable and aggregated information regarding economy and consumption of energy statistics of economies in question.The investigation will contribute towards an increased understanding of thebetween consumption of fossil energy and economic growth and shed new light on factors that could impact success in the transition in economies with a base in coal.Agricultural production is highly energy-dependent, relying on fossil fuels across various stages of the agri-food system. In carbon-resource economies, fluctuations in fossil energy availability and prices can therefore transmit directly into agricultural production costs, food prices, and food security outcomes.Energy-intensive development paths increase the vulnerability of food systems to energy price volatility and supply disruptions. Rising fossil energy costs can disproportionately affect small and medium-scale farmers, reduce access to affordable food, and intensify environmental pressures through increased greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, understanding the relationship between fossil energy consumption and economic growth is critical not only for macroeconomic stability but also for designing sustainable and resilient food systems.Although the empirical model does not directly include food-system variables, fossil energy consumption plays a fundamental role in agricultural production processes, including mechanization, fertilizer production, irrigation, and food supply chains. Therefore, the implications for sustainable food systems are interpreted indirectly, based on the wellestablished role of energy in agri-food systems. To strengthen this linkage, the study interprets energy intensity and fossil energy consumption as proxy indicators of energy dependence within production systems, including agri-food systems. Although food-systemspecific variables are not explicitly included in the model, energy intensity reflects the structural reliance of production processes, such as mechanized agriculture, fertilizer use, and food processing, on fossil energy inputs. Therefore, variations in energy intensity can be interpreted as indicative of broader systemic dependencies that also affect agricultural sustainability.In this context, the transition toward energy efficiency and renewable energy adoption plays a central role in sustainable agriculture. Renewable energy technologies-such as solarpowered irrigation, bioenergy from agricultural residues, and energy-efficient food processing-offer opportunities to decouple food production from fossil fuel dependence.This study therefore provides important insights into sustainable food-system policy by linking fossil energy consumption patterns with long-term economic and environmental sustainability.The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between fossil energy consumption and economic growth in carbon-resource economies using a Random Forest model. Specifically, the study aims to (1) assess the predictive relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth, (2) evaluate the relative importance of energy-related variables, and (3) explore the implications of fossil energy dependence for sustainable development and food systems.Fossil fuels play a key role in economic development, as industrial production, transportation and household energy use relies heavily on them. The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been the subject of numerous theoretical and empirical studies. Stern (2004) highlights that energy is one of the most important factors of production that directly affects economic performance. An increase in energy consumption generally has a positive effect on GDP growth, as it promotes the expansion of industrial production and services.However, research on the relationship shows mixed results, especially regarding regional and economic development levels. Some studies, such as Omri (2013), have shown that energy-intensive economic models in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries show a particularly strong relationship between fossil energy consumption and economic g r o w However, other research warns that economic development is not always closely related to energy use, especially at higher levels of development, where energy efficiency and technological innovation reduce the relative role of fossil fuels (Apergis & Payne, 2009).Energy intensity is the ratio of energy used to economic output, which varies considerably depending on the economic structure of countries. Sadorsky (2010) found that industrialization stages of economies tend to be associated with high energy intensity, as the dominance of the industrial sector results in higher energy consumption. In contrast, servicebased economies tend to have lower energy consumption, as service sectors are typically less energy-intensive.Changes in economic structure, including shrinking agricultural and industrial sectors in favor of service sectors, have an impact on energy consumption trends too. Stern (2004) examined that economic diversification, and the use of energy-saving technology can contribute to a considerable fall in energy intensity and promote sustainable economic development.The consequences of consumption of fossil energetic sources for ecological and economic sustainability are becoming a growing concern in the situation of greenhouse gas emissions and exhaustion of natural resources in connection with climate change. Greenhouse gases, produced through burning fossil fuels, contribute to one of the most important factors for greenhouse warming and, therefore, climate change. As estimated by IPCC (2021), over 75% of greenhouse gas emissions of carbon dioxide result from burning fossil fuels and contribute to extreme events and sea level rise.Cutting down consumption of fossil energy sources and its substitution with renewable sources is a must in a quest for sustainability objectives (Gáspár et al. 2023). As stated in IEA (2020), state policies, including pricing and subsidies for renewable sources, can become a driving force for an accelerated transition in energy sources. Nevertheless, developing nations, benefiting from cheap sources of energy, suffer most, in that both social and financial expenses for transition are for them larger.A key feature in endogenous growth approaches is the connection between technological development and energy consumption. According to Romer (1990) and Lucas (1988)'s theory, technological innovation and consumption of energy together boost productivity, acting as a driving force for economic development. Availability of energy sources, therefore, impacts directly upon a level of economic development Another important consideration is increased energy efficiency, which enables economies to produce a similar amount with less use of energy. Nevertheless, according to the Jevons paradox, improvement in energy efficiency does not necessarily mean a reduction in the use of energy, as increased use of energy-saving technology can boost the demand for energy (Alcott, 2005).Following the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, environmental pressures rise in early development and then start to fall at a high level of development, when developed nations transition to cleaner technology. According to Grossman and Krueger (1995), the EKC holds for developed nations, in which environment-related legislation and technological innovation permit curving over the environment-related burden.For consumption of fossil energy, EKC proposes that economies, when at a high level of development, can possibly downgrade consumpt

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1935581first seen 2026-08-02 16:40:46