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不平等で断片化した未来は脱炭素化の物的コストを増大させる

Unequal and fragmented futures increase the material cost of decarbonisation (原題)

Samuel Stephenson, Jonathan Cullen, Andre Cabrera Serrenho

プレプリント2026-08-20#エネルギー転換Origin: Global経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10450949/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10450949/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究はGCAMとストックフロー・モデルを結合し、5つのSSPシナリオにおけるコバルト、銅、リチウム等6鉱物の需要を推計。パリ協定整合シナリオでは需要がベースライン比150-250%増加する一方、持続可能なシナリオでは24-37%減少。不平等や地域対立が鉱物需要を増大させ、サプライチェーン制約下での移行リスクを示す。

English

Coupling GCAM with a stock-flow model, this study estimates demand for six critical minerals across five SSPs. Paris-aligned futures raise demand 150-250% above baseline by 2050, while sustainability pathways cut it 24-37%. Inequality and fragmentation increase mineral intensity, posing risks under constrained supply chains.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX政策では、資源確保戦略（JOGMEC等）やサプライチェーン強靭化が重要。本結果は、SSBJ開示におけるシナリオ分析や資源リスク評価に示唆を与え、脱炭素移行の物的制約を考慮した政策立案に有用。

In the global GX context

Globally, this study informs ISSB/TCFD scenario analysis by quantifying how socio-economic conditions alter critical mineral demand. It highlights that climate targets alone do not determine material needs, urging transition finance and supply chain resilience considerations.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a robust quantitative framework linking SSPs to mineral demand, useful for integrated assessment modeling.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights supply chain risks for companies relying on critical minerals, informing procurement and disclosure strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes that inequality and fragmentation increase material costs, supporting policies for sustainable and equitable transitions.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Low-carbon energy and transport systems require large quantities of critical minerals. Existing demand estimates have largely focused on narrowly defined, least-cost decarbonisation pathways, leaving unclear how wider socio-economic conditions alter the material requirements of meeting climate targets. Here we couple the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM v8) with a stock-flow model to estimate annual demand for cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements from energy and road transport technologies across five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, under baseline and Paris-aligned futures. We find that demand for all six minerals increases in every pathway, but that socio-economic conditions strongly shape its scale, timing and geography. In baseline futures, mineral demand is closely coupled to economic growth. In Paris-aligned futures, non-GDP factors, including the material intensity of consumption, inequality, technology diffusion and regional battery chemistry, become more important. By 2050, Paris alignment raises annual demand by 150-250% relative to baseline levels, whereas the sustainability pathway reduces demand by 24-37% below the Paris-aligned multi-scenario average, depending on the mineral. Demand growth also shifts outside East Asia, particularly towards Europe under regional rivalry and South Asia under inequality. These results suggest that the material challenge of decarbonisation is not fixed by the climate target alone. Unequal or fragmented futures make Paris-aligned transitions more mineral-intensive precisely when supply chains, trade and technology access are likely to be more constrained.

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