都市規模での長江経済帯の生活廃棄物炭素排出の要因分解と削減ポテンシャル

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🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework for decomposing waste emission factors and predicting reduction potential using neural networks.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the role of recycling and waste treatment structure in reducing emissions, useful for corporate waste management strategies.

🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for tailored waste reduction policies based on city characteristics, informing local climate action plans.

Promoting carbon emissions reduction of urban domestic waste is an important measure to achieve the "dual carbon" goals and achieve coordinated pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction. Based on the panel data of 111 cities above prefecture level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2020， this study calculated the carbon emissions of urban domestic waste， including the "source reduction + terminal disposal" process. The cities were clustered into four types based on population and economic characteristics， and the influencing factors of carbon emissions from urban domestic waste were decomposed. Furthermore， the BP neural network model and scenario analysis method were used to predict the carbon reduction potential of domestic waste in each type of city. The results show that： ① The total carbon emissions of domestic waste in the Yangtze River Economic Belt had been increasing year by year during the observation period. From the perspective of the carbon emission structure， landfill was always the main carbon source with the largest proportion， followed by incineration， and the proportion of biodegradation emissions was the lowest， while the growth rate of carbon reduction from recycling was the highest， and the reduction efficiency was continuously enhanced. ② The impact effects of treatment structure， economic development， urbanization level， and total population size on the carbon emissions of domestic waste were all positive， while the impact effects of waste generation intensity and industrial structure optimization were negative， and they showed different effects in various cities. ③ All types of cities had great carbon reduction potential in domestic waste， but there were great differences. The carbon reduction potential of the second type of city was far higher than that of other cities， while the first type of city had the lowest carbon reduction potential overall. The change degree of carbon reduction potential of the third and fourth types of cities was similar， showing a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. All localities should formulate and implement carbon reduction measures for domestic waste disposal according to local conditions.

• openalex https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42670101first seen 2026-09-03 05:15:25