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PEM水電解による水素製造のカーボンフットプリント:電源構成と負荷シフト戦略の影響

Carbon Footprint of Hydrogen Production with PEM Water Electrolysis: Effects of Electricity Generation Mix, Load-Shifting Strategies (原題)

Gizem Nur Bulanık Durmuş, Cihan Turhan

Processes📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-09#水素経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.3390/pr14203238
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/pr14203238

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

10MWのPEM水電解システムを対象に、電源構成(化石・均衡・再エネ)、負荷シフト戦略、システム寿命が水素の炭素強度に与える影響を評価した。炭素強度は約7.4〜29.9 kgCO2e/kgH2の範囲となり、電源構成と運転戦略の影響が大きく、寿命の影響は相対的に小さい。高負荷シフト(LS2)で最大3.13 kgCO2e/kgH2の削減が示された。

English

This study models a 10 MW PEM electrolyzer to assess how electricity mix, load-shifting strategy, and system lifetime affect hydrogen's carbon footprint. Results range from ~7.4 to 29.9 kg CO2e/kg H2, with mix and operating strategy dominating over lifetime effects. High load shifting (LS2) cut emissions by up to 3.13 kg CO2e/kg H2.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本は水素をGXの柱とし、再エネ電力調達と水素製造の炭素強度評価が重要。本稿は電源構成と運転戦略が水素の炭素強度を大きく左右することを示し、水素の低炭素認定や調達戦略、Scope3算定の議論に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

As global hydrogen standards (EU RFNBO, US 45V, ISO) tighten around hourly matching and additionality, this paper quantifies how grid mix and load shifting drive hydrogen carbon intensity. It supports disclosure and certification debates on what counts as low-carbon hydrogen.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:電源構成・運転戦略・寿命が水素炭素強度に与える影響を定量化したLCA枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:水素調達や再エネ電力契約の際、負荷シフトと電源構成が炭素強度を大きく変えることを示す。

🏛政策担当者:低炭素水素の認定基準や電力の時間別マッチング制度設計の参考になる。

📄 Abstract(原文)

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis is considered a promising route for low-carbon hydrogen production, yet the carbon footprint of the hydrogen produced may vary considerably with the structure of the electricity supply, the temporal operating strategy of the electrolyzer, and the system lifetime. This study examines these three factors within a single, transparent scenario framework. A 10 MW PEM system with a specific electricity consumption of 50 kWh/kg H2 and a 50% capacity factor is modeled. The electricity system is represented by coal, natural gas, onshore wind, and solar photovoltaic (PV) generation, combined into three mixes: fossil-dominated (F), balanced (B), and renewable-dominated (R). For each mix, a representative day with hourly source shares is defined, from which hourly carbon intensity is derived. Three operating strategies are compared: flat operation (LS0), moderate load shifting (LS1), and high load shifting (LS2), with progressively higher loads during the six lowest-carbon-intensity hours and lower loads during the intermediate- and high-carbon-intensity hours, while daily hydrogen output is held constant. System lifetimes of 10, 15, and 20 years are used to allocate the embodied emissions of electrolyzer manufacturing and stack replacement. The assessment is attributional and uses average life-cycle emission factors with perfect foresight; the main scenario analysis is based on constructed hourly electricity-mix profiles, while hydrogen storage is excluded from the system boundary. The resulting scenarios yield carbon footprints between approximately 7.4 and 29.9 kg CO2e/kg H2. Under LS2, the carbon footprint was reduced by 1.31, 3.13, and 2.74 kg CO2e/kg H2 for the F, B, and R mixes, respectively. Across the scenario ranges examined, the carbon footprint varied with the electricity mix and operating strategy, whereas changes associated with the evaluated system lifetimes were smaller.

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