気候政策の不確実性が油糧種子先物リターンに与える時間変動的影響：エネルギー転換とバイオ燃料の視点から
Time-Varying Impacts of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Oilseed Futures Returns: From Energy Transition and Biofuel Perspectives (原題)
Guanming Liu, Gang Deng, Xueying Sun, Feifan Chen, Ka Po Wong, Jin Yeu Tsou, Yuanzhi Zhang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、気候政策の不確実性（CPU）が油糧種子先物リターンに与える時間変動的影響を、需給・コストの二重チャネル理論に基づきTVP-VARモデルで分析。CPUは概ね正の影響を与えるが、期間により負の影響も見られ、短期的影響が卓越する。エネルギー転換とバイオ燃料需要の観点から、商品市場のリスク管理に示唆を与える。
English
This paper examines the time-varying impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on oilseed futures returns using a TVP-VAR model, based on dual supply-demand and cost channels. CPU generally has a positive effect, but negative impacts appear in certain periods, with short-term effects dominant. It offers insights for commodity market risk management amid energy transition and biofuel demand.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではバイオ燃料政策やエネルギー転換が進む中、気候政策の不確実性が農産物市場に与える影響は、食料とエネルギーの連関を考える上で参考になる。ただし、日本市場への直接的な示唆は限定的。
In the global GX context
Globally, this research contributes to understanding how climate policy uncertainty transmits to commodity markets, relevant for energy transition and biofuel policies. It adds to the literature on climate risk and commodity pricing, useful for investors and policymakers.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the time-varying effects of climate policy uncertainty on commodity futures, useful for extending climate-finance research.
🏢実務担当者:Commodity traders and risk managers can use insights to hedge against climate policy-driven price fluctuations.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights how climate policy uncertainty can affect agricultural commodity markets, informing policy design to stabilize markets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Oilseed crops serve as pivotal raw materials for renewable energy production, rendering oilseed futures increasingly vulnerable to the dual shocks stemming from climate risk and the global energy transition. Against this backdrop, investigating the dynamic impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on oilseed futures markets holds substantial practical and theoretical significance for commodity market risk management and pricing. Based on the theoretical logic of dual supply–demand and cost channels, this paper employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to examine how fluctuations in CPU exert time-varying impacts on oilseed futures returns by shaping the supply–demand dynamics and production costs of the oilseed market. The empirical results reveal that CPU changes generally exert a positive effect on oilseed futures returns, while significant negative impacts are detected in specific sample periods, exhibiting a time-varying alternating pattern, with the short-term impact being the most dominant and pronounced. In addition, impulse response analysis at three typical time points shows that CPU shocks positively affect oilseed futures returns mainly in periods 1–2, while negative effects peak in period 3 and then decay with alternating fluctuations. The heterogeneity across time points verifies the dual-channel mechanism of shifting dominance between supply–demand and cost channels.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/en19174114first seen 2026-09-04 05:08:50
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