グリーン資源の罠：南米における経済不安定と脱炭素化の従属
The green resource trap: economic instability and the subordination of decarbonization in South America (原題)
Lina Leon, Mauricio Sanchez Silva, Edgar Virgüez
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
南米12カ国を対象に、エネルギー・排出・資源依存・経済複雑性・統治のデータを統合し、抽出依存度と転換能力の2軸で移行経路を類型化した。資源豊富でも「グリーン資源の罠」に陥り、一次産品輸出依存が再生産される構造を指摘。ベネズエラとガイアナの対照事例から、移行は気候政策よりも経済不安定に強く規定されると論じる。
English
Analyzing 12 South American economies across energy, emissions, resource dependence, complexity, and governance, the authors build a typology of transition pathways along extractive dependence and transformation capacity. They identify a 'green resource trap' where resource wealth reproduces primary-export dependence rather than driving structural transformation. Venezuela and Guyana show that economic instability, not climate policy alone, shapes energy trajectories.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は資源輸入国であり直接の当事者ではないが、資源依存国の移行リスクを理解することは、移行金融やサプライチェーン（リチウム等）調達リスク評価に資する。SSBJ・有報での移行計画開示を検討する企業にとって、資源国の構造的制約を踏まえたシナリオ分析の参考になる。
In the global GX context
This adds a Global South political-economy lens to transition scholarship, complementing TCFD/ISSB scenario analysis by showing that transition capacity is conditioned by macroeconomic stability and institutional quality, not just policy ambition. It informs transition finance debates on how to channel capital to resource-dependent economies without reinforcing extractive dependence.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:資源依存と移行能力を分離して類型化する枠組みは、移行経路研究や比較政治経済分析に応用可能。
🏢実務担当者:リチウム等の重要鉱物調達において、資源国の経済不安定が供給リスクになり得る点を調達戦略に反映できる。
🏛政策担当者:資源国支援では、気候政策だけでなく経済多様化・制度能力・安定化を同時に設計する必要がある。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract South America holds an exceptional endowment of transition-relevant resources, including roughly 47% of identified global lithium, world-class solar and wind potential, and one of the planet’s largest carbon sinks. Yet this abundance has not translated into leadership in the global energy transition. We examine this structural contradiction through a data-driven analysis of the twelve South American economies integrating energy systems, emissions, resource dependence, economic complexity, and governance. We characterize countries along four structural fronts and combine them into two dimensions, extractive dependence and transformation capacity, to construct an empirical typology of national transition pathways, independently assessed using hierarchical clustering. The analysis identifies a recurring configuration we term the green resource trap, in which high extractive dependence and limited transformation capacity allow resource wealth to reproduce primary-export dependence rather than catalyze structural transformation, potentially recasting a fossil-resource periphery as a green-resource periphery. Among the most resource-dependent economies, we further find that energy trajectories are strongly conditioned by economic instability rather than climate policy alone. Venezuela and Guyana illustrate this mechanism in opposite directions: Venezuela’s declining fossil share reflects economic collapse rather than deliberate transition, while Guyana’s oil boom has deepened fossil and resource dependence even as global decarbonization accelerates. These findings suggest that resource abundance alone does not determine transition prospects. For resource-dependent economies, economic diversification, institutional capacity, and stability are preconditions for sustaining decarbonization and capturing greater domestic value from the global transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/aeada6first seen 2026-09-30 05:57:51 · last seen 2026-10-02 05:57:45
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。