米国エネルギー脱炭素化の大気質・健康影響に関するマルチモデル評価

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:脱炭素経路の健康影響評価におけるモデル間不確実性と非エネルギー排出の重要性を示す。

🏢実務担当者:自社の脱炭素シナリオが地域の大気質・健康に与える影響を把握し、社会受容性や規制リスク管理に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:ネットゼロ政策の健康便益を定量化し、大気質・気候政策の統合評価や山火事対策の必要性を判断する材料となる。

Abstract Net-zero transitions are expected to reduce ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and the associated mortality burden. The magnitude and distribution of these health effects are substantially affected by energy technology choices and the resulting precursor emissions that contribute to ambient PM2.5. On the basis of a multi-model analysis using three leading energy system models for the United States (US-REGEN, GCAM-USA, and REPEAT), we demonstrate that a net-zero transition yields robust nationwide reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations and associated mortality. Under the net-zero scenarios, national PM2.5-attributable mortality rates in 2050 declined by 28–73% compared to 2017 across the three models. This result confirms substantial health benefits from reducing energy-sector pollution, despite concurrent population growth and aging trends that place upward pressure on mortality. Differences across the models result from how CO2 mitigation efforts are allocated across sectors and associated energy technology choices. For instance, the scale of carbon dioxide removal deployment in 2050 varies by a factor of three across the net-zero scenarios developed by the three models, influencing the amount of fossil fuel use that remains in a deeply decarbonized future and, consequently, the precursor emissions contributing to ambient PM2.5. By exploring sensitivity analyses that vary the projected emissions from non-energy activities such as wildfires, we also find that potential future increases in non-energy emissions can offset energy-sector health benefits.

• crossref https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c02914first seen 2026-09-18 05:52:47 · last seen 2026-09-22 05:44:57