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Modelling Policy Scenarios and Market Dynamics of Renewable Energy Certificate Markets in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach

インドネシアにおける再生可能エネルギー証書市場の政策シナリオと市場動態のモデル化：システムダイナミクスアプローチ (AI 翻訳)

Irham H, Hakam DF

Research Squareプレプリント2026-06-05#再生可能エネルギー
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8907099/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8907099/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

インドネシアの再生可能エネルギー証書（REC）市場を対象に、システムダイナミクスモデルを用いて13の政策シナリオを評価。単一介入では効果が限定的だが、需要刺激、財政支援、REC収入の再投資を組み合わせた多要素シナリオが市場安定と設備拡大に有効であることを示した。

English

This study applies a system dynamics model to evaluate 13 policy scenarios for Indonesia's nascent REC market (2025-2035). Results show that single-factor interventions yield marginal improvements, while integrated multi-factor policies stabilize prices, boost trading volumes, and enhance investment feedback, achieving 55 GW renewable capacity by 2035.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

インドネシアのREC市場設計の知見は、日本の非化石証書市場やトラッキング付き証書の制度設計にも示唆を与える可能性がある。特に、複数政策の連携が市場の信頼性向上に重要である点は日本でも参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a dynamic evaluation framework for REC markets in an emerging economy, highlighting the necessity of coordinated policy levers. The findings contribute to global understanding of market-based mechanisms for renewable energy deployment and investment certainty, relevant for countries designing or reforming certificate systems.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Extends system dynamics REC analysis to emerging economies, providing a model for studying policy feedback and market stability.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for REC market designers on combining demand-side incentives, fiscal support, and revenue reinvestment to enhance market credibility.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that multi-factor policy integration is essential for REC market success, reducing investment uncertainty and aligning with national energy targets.

📄 Abstract（原文）

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Indonesia formally launched its Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) trading market in 2024 to support national renewable energy and energy transition targets. Unlike mature REC systems in developed economies and quota-driven certificate markets in China, Indonesia’s REC market is at an early development stage and faces persistent challenges, including price volatility, limited demand depth, and weak long-term investment signals. These characteristics require a dynamic policy evaluation framework capable of capturing feedback effects between market behavior, policy interventions, and renewable energy investment. This study develops a system dynamics model to evaluate alternative REC policy scenarios in Indonesia over the period 2025–2035. Thirteen scenarios are examined, comprising a baseline scenario, five single-factor interventions, and seven multi-factor policy configurations integrating demand-side behavioral incentives, fiscal support mechanisms, and reinvestment of REC revenues into renewable energy capacity expansion. The results indicate that single-factor interventions generate only marginal improvements and are insufficient to sustain REC market development. In contrast, integrated multi-factor policy scenarios significantly enhance market performance by stabilizing REC prices, increasing trading volumes, and strengthening investment feedback mechanisms. The High Intervention Strategy delivers the strongest outcomes, achieving approximately 55 GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2035, a stabilized REC price of IDR 95,639 per certificate, and accumulated REC profits of IDR 6.2 trillion, while exhibiting lower price volatility than other scenarios. This study contributes to the literature by extending system dynamics–based REC analysis beyond developed and Chinese market contexts to an emerging economy and provides policy-relevant evidence that coordinated, multi-lever REC policy design is essential for improving market credibility, reducing investment uncertainty, and aligning REC market development with national energy transition goals.</p>

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