郷鎮スケールでの太陽光発電拡大の時空間進化とマルチシナリオシミュレーション：中国新泰市を事例に
Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Photovoltaic Expansion at the Township Scale: A Case Study of Xintai, China (原題)
Yi Chen, Yao Meng, Tao Liu, Dekai Tao, Yong Lei, Wenjuan Huang, Hailan Tan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国新泰市を対象に、2010年から2022年までの太陽光発電（PV）開発の時空間進化を分析し、将来の空間パターンを自然発展（ND）とカーボンニュートラル（CN）シナリオでシミュレーションした。PV開発は2015年以降急速に拡大し、空間的集積が進んだ。CNシナリオでは、石炭沈下地域や非効率な工鉱業用地への集中が促進され、農地保護との競合緩和に寄与することが示された。
English
This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of photovoltaic (PV) development in Xintai, China, from 2010 to 2022 and simulates future spatial patterns under natural development (ND) and carbon neutrality (CN) scenarios. PV development expanded rapidly after 2015 with increasing spatial agglomeration. The CN scenario promotes more concentrated expansion in coal subsidence areas and inefficient industrial/mining lands, helping alleviate conflicts with cultivated land protection.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、再生可能エネルギー導入拡大に伴う土地利用競合が課題となっており、本研究成果は、農地や自然環境との調和を図るためのゾーニングや計画策定に示唆を与える。特に、石炭鉱業地域の転換や、低利用地の活用は、日本の地域再生にも応用可能な知見である。
In the global GX context
This study provides empirical evidence on integrating renewable energy expansion with land-use planning, relevant to global efforts to balance decarbonization with food security and ecosystem protection. The scenario simulation approach offers a model for other countries facing similar land-use conflicts in energy transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework (OPGD + PLUS) for analyzing PV expansion and land-use conflicts, applicable to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for spatial planning of renewable energy projects to minimize conflicts with agricultural land, useful for project siting.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of prioritizing low-conflict land resources and spatial coordination in renewable energy policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Rapid growth in photovoltaic (PV) development has intensified competition between renewable energy expansion and land resources, highlighting the importance of integrating PV growth with spatial planning toward carbon neutrality. This study addresses the lack of township-level evidence by integrating spatio-temporal analysis, the Optimal Parameter Geodetector (OPGD), and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to investigate the evolution, driving mechanisms, and future spatial patterns of PV development. Taking Xintai City as a case study, this research examines PV development from 2010 to 2022 and simulates future spatial patterns under natural development (ND) and carbon neutrality (CN) scenarios. Results show that PV development entered a rapid expansion stage after 2015, characterized by leapfrog growth and increasing spatial agglomeration. The centroid of PV patches shifted eastward, whereas the centroid of PV area migrated westward, indicating differentiated spatial evolution between the number and scale of PV facilities. PV development was jointly shaped by climatic conditions, socioeconomic factors, and land availability, with interactions among multiple factors substantially enhancing spatial heterogeneity. Scenario simulations revealed that PV development continued under both scenarios, while the CN scenario promoted more concentrated expansion in coal subsidence areas and inefficient industrial and mining lands, thereby helping alleviate potential conflicts with cultivated land protection. These findings highlight the importance of prioritizing low-conflict land resources and strengthening spatial coordination between renewable energy development and land management to support sustainable low-carbon development in resource-based cities.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/land15081481first seen 2026-08-19 04:52:00
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