← 論文一覧に戻る

炭素価格は暗号通貨マイニングの排出を転換させるか？EU27、ロシア、その他の世界の電力グリッドからの炭素漏出に関する分位点証拠

Does Carbon Pricing Displace Crypto-Mining Emissions? Quantile Evidence on Carbon Leakage from EU27, Russian and Rest-of-World Power Grids (原題)

Pham Ngoc Toan, Le Tran Trung Hieu, Nguyen Vu Trung Nguyen

Risks📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-21#炭素価格Origin: Global対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.3390/risks14080187
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/risks14080187

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、EUの炭素価格が暗号通貨マイニングの電力需要を他地域に移転させ、排出漏出を引き起こすかを検証する。2019-2025年の日次データを用いた分位点回帰の結果、ロシアの低排出分位でビットコイン収益と炭素価格の交互作用が正であることを示すが、物理的な移転の証明には至らない。

English

This paper examines whether EU carbon pricing displaces crypto-mining electricity demand to other regions, causing emissions leakage. Using daily data from 2019-2025 and quantile regressions, it finds a positive interaction in Russia's lower-emission quantile, but stops short of proving physical relocation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では、カーボンプライシング導入が議論される中、排出漏出の可能性は政策設計上の重要な論点。本論文は、国境を越えた排出移転の実証的証拠を提供し、日本の排出削減策の有効性を検討する際の参考となる。

In the global GX context

As carbon pricing expands globally, understanding leakage risks is crucial. This paper provides empirical evidence on cross-border emissions displacement, relevant for designing effective climate policies and border carbon adjustments.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides quantile-based evidence on carbon leakage in the context of crypto-mining, useful for further research on emissions displacement.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights potential risks of carbon pricing leading to emissions relocation, relevant for companies in energy-intensive sectors.

🏛政策担当者:Informs carbon pricing design to mitigate leakage, especially considering mobile electricity loads like crypto-mining.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Carbon pricing is jurisdictional, while proof-of-work cryptocurrency mining is a highly mobile electricity load. We examine whether daily power-sector emissions display a cross-regional and distributional pattern consistent with short-run emissions displacement. Using daily observations covering calendar years 2019–2025 (with a boundary observation on 1 January 2026; N = 2550 after transformation and cleaning), we estimate quantile regressions for the EU27, the Russian Federation and the rest of the world using the interaction between Bitcoin returns and European carbon-allowance returns. The focal Russian lower-tail interaction is positive (q10 beta = 0.0662); OLS and dynamic specifications remain positive, and a 1000-replication pairs bootstrap gives p = 0.0077. The association survives a trading-day-only sample, calendar and persistence controls, and a seven-lag specification, while randomised-carbon and non-power-sector placebo outcomes are null. However, the coefficient loses conventional significance without Winsorisation, the May-2021 Chinese-ban timing prediction is not supported, and a direct EU27-minus-Russia substitution diagnostic is null. Quantile-on-quantile estimates place the largest Russian Bitcoin-return coefficients in high-carbon-price, low-emission states, but remain descriptive. Because the design does not observe mining capacity moving across jurisdictions and the available full-sample Russian emissions series is national rather than subnational, the evidence supports a leakage-consistent operational association rather than proof of physical relocation or a broad causal effect of EU carbon pricing.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。

gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。