Geothermal Cost and Deployment Dynamics in the US During the Production Tax Credit Era: Learning, Spillovers, and Innovation (Thesis Poster)

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on the limited effectiveness of production tax credits for geothermal, emphasizing the role of global spillovers and innovation.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for utilities and project developers on the importance of international experience and risk mitigation in geothermal projects.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for policy portfolios that include exploration risk reduction and R&D support alongside production subsidies for low-carbon technologies.

This thesis investigates why geothermal energy has not experienced the same cost reductions and capacity increases as wind and solar despite over two decades of Production Tax Credit eligibility. Using national geothermal cost and capacity data from 2004-2024, alongside R&D measures, global capacity, and various cost and macro-financial controls, it evaluates which factors have been associated with changes in geothermal cost and capacity over the time period. The analysis finds no clear evidence of domestic “learning-by-doing” for geothermal in the US during the Production Tax Credit eligibility period but instead finds that recent decreases in levelized cost of energy are more closely tied to global geothermal deployment and multinational project experience. At the same time, innovation activity, proxied by geothermal patenting, is associated with modest expansion in U.S. capacity but not with systematic declines in reported average costs, demonstrating the importance of a multi-dimensional approach to stimulating this low-carbon resource. These findings have important implications for climate and energy policy, in addition to overall energy transition strategy. Geothermal is dispatchable, clean energy source with relatively small land footprint, but its extensive project timelines and uncertainties in drilling and exploration have limited its ability to respond to a production-based subsidy in the same manner as wind and solar. By documenting that geothermal remained costly and marginally deployed even under favorable tax policy, this thesis confirms that equal nominal incentives can produce unequal outcomes when underlying technological and regulatory conditions differ. The results suggest that advancing geothermal to a central part of the clean energy transition will require a policy strategy that incorporates risk‑reducing support for exploration and drilling and sustained investment in R&D, rather than reliance on production-based subsidies alone.

• openalex https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/62535first seen 2026-05-15 17:30:40