エジプトにおける地政学リスクと再生可能エネルギー投資：米・イスラエル・イラン紛争の技術経済評価

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:地政学リスクを投資不確実性理論でLCOEに定量伝達する手法が参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:新興国での再エネ調達・投資案件のリスク感応度評価に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:再エネ政策において金融デリスキングと供給網強靱化を優先すべき根拠を提供する。

Geopolitical instability presents an inherent paradox for renewable energy economics, reinforcing the strategic imperative for renewable energy while acting as a cost multiplier for its deployment. This study examines how geopolitical escalation associated with the US-Israel-Iran conflict would affect renewable energy investment in Egypt, specifically utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV), through physical supply side and financial risk transmission channels. Drawing on the theory of investment under uncertainty, a quantitative scenario-based techno-economic framework is developed using recent secondary data. Physical pressures arising from commodity, manufacturing, and logistics disruptions are measured through changes in capital expenditure (CAPEX), while changes in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) measure financial risk. A reference solar PV system is evaluated alongside limited escalation, prolonged disruption, and severe escalation stress scenarios, followed by two-way sensitivity and robustness analyses. The reference case yields a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 4.62 US cents/kWh under the baseline assumptions. Findings show that LCOE increases to 5.17 cents/kWh under limited escalation, 6.04 cents/kWh under prolonged disruption, and 7.06 cents/kWh under severe combined stress, with an increase of 52.9% relative to the reference case. Results further suggest that financing conditions exert a larger independent effect than the physical supply shock; a 20% increase in CAPEX raises LCOE by 18.4%, whereas increasing WACC by 4% raises it by 28.7%. This ranking remains stable across alternative reference specifications, while combined scenarios reveal an amplification mechanism when higher financing costs are applied to an enlarged capital requirement. Consistent with the theoretical proposition, the findings indicate that abundant renewable resources do not necessarily imply resilient investment conditions under geopolitical stress. Geopolitically exposed emerging economies like Egypt should therefore prioritize financial de-risking and supply chain resilience when formulating energy policy.

• Research Square https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202610.0775.v1first seen 2026-10-17 04:23:05 · last seen 2026-10-23 04:45:23
• openalex https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202610.0775.v1first seen 2026-10-31 04:45:47 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:35:35