Probabilistic projections of global wind and solar power growth based on historical national experience
過去の国家経験に基づく世界の風力・太陽光発電成長の確率論的予測 (AI 翻訳)
Avi Jakhmola, Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko, Aleh Cherp
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
風力・太陽光発電の展開には、長期にわたる安定成長に成長パルスが重なるパターンがある。この知見に基づき、PROLONGモデルを開発し、世界の風力・太陽光発電を確率的に予測。中央予測はIPCC 2°C経路に類似し、COP28の再生可能エネルギー3倍化目標は95パーセンタイル近くに位置する。
English
Wind and solar deployment follows a recurring pattern of steady growth punctuated by growth pulses. Based on this, we develop PROLONG, a probabilistic model for global wind and solar projections. Central projections align with IPCC 2°C pathways, and the COP28 triple-renewables pledge is near the 95th percentile, requiring major economies to accelerate growth 1.4–5 times.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の再生可能エネルギー導入計画策定において、本モデルは実現可能な成長経路の確率的評価を提供する。成長パルスの発見は、系統連携や投資計画に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper addresses the critical need for robust methods to assess the likelihood of renewable acceleration, a key global GX challenge. The PROLONG model can be adapted for data-driven projections of other policy-dependent technologies, informing international climate policy and investment decisions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel probabilistic modeling framework (PROLONG) for renewable deployment projections, with insights on growth patterns across countries.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a data-driven tool to benchmark corporate renewable targets against probabilistic global growth scenarios.
🏛政策担当者:Quantifies the likelihood of achieving the COP28 pledge and highlights required acceleration rates for major economies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Despite the recent surge of wind and solar power, both technologies need to accelerate to meet climate goals. Yet, there are no robust methods to assess the likelihood of such acceleration. Here we show that renewable energy deployment follows a recurring pattern across countries with prolonged periods of relatively steady growth punctuated by growth pulses. Based on this insight and on observed growth trajectories in early adopting countries, we develop a probabilistic model (PROLONG) for projecting global wind and solar power deployment. In our central projections, both wind and solar power grow similarly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2 °C-compatible pathways and faster than in current policy scenarios. The COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030 is near the 95th percentile of our projections and requires that the growth of wind and solar photovoltaics in major economies accelerate by 1.4–3 times and 2–5 times, respectively. PROLONG can be adopted for data-driven projections of other policy-dependent energy technologies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-026-02021-wfirst seen 2026-05-05 19:13:43
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。