持続可能性の輸出？日本からグローバルサウスおよびその先への電動車・従来車中古車フローの環境トレードオフ評価
Exporting sustainability? Assessing the environmental trade-offs of secondhand electrified and conventional vehicle flows from Japan to the global south and beyond (原題)
Suyi Yang, Heng Yi Teah, Eri Amasawa, Yuichiro Kanematsu, Yasunori Kikuchi
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
日本の中古車輸出について、4種のパワートレイン・10の輸出先を対象にモジュール型帰属LCAで正味のライフサイクル気候影響を定量化した。輸出先での材料回収がない場合、低炭素電源のEVを除き全車種が純負荷となり、国内リサイクル比で平均約8,400kg-CO2eq/台の悪化となる。輸出先で回収が行われればHEV・PHEV・EVは全先で純便益（−8,500〜−140kg）となるが、ICEVは輸出先依存で、回収アルミのクレジット基準によりHEVの結論は反転しうる。最大のドライバーは材料回収、次いで系統炭素強度とパワートレインであり、輸送距離は順位を変えなかった。
English
A modular attributional LCA with avoided-burden modeling quantifies net life-cycle climate impacts of Japan's used-vehicle exports across four powertrains and ten destinations. Without destination material recovery, exports are net burdens for all powertrains except EVs on very low-carbon grids, averaging ~8,400 kg CO2-eq worse per vehicle than domestic recycling. With recovery, HEVs, PHEVs and EVs are net-beneficial everywhere (−8,500 to −140 kg), while ICEV outcomes are destination-dependent and HEV results can reverse under secondary-alloy crediting. Material recovery dominates system drivers, followed by grid carbon intensity and powertrain type.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中古車輸出は日本の資源循環政策・自動車産業の国際展開と直結し、SSBJのScope 3・サーキュラーエコノミー開示や輸出先での回収インフラ整備の議論に実証的根拠を提供する。
In the global GX context
Adds rare empirical evidence to global used-vehicle trade and circular-economy disclosure debates, informing Scope 3 downstream accounting, EU ELV regulation spillovers, and just-transition questions around secondhand EV flows to the Global South.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:中古車貿易の正味気候便益が輸出先の材料回収インフラとクレジット基準に強く依存することを示す、LCA手法論としても重要な実証研究。
🏢実務担当者:中古車輸出・リサイクル事業者は、輸出先でのバッテリー・アルミ回収体制の整備がScope 3削減と便益確保の鍵となる点を事業計画に反映できる。
🏛政策担当者:中古車輸出政策と資源循環政策を連動させ、輸出先での回収・リサイクル能力の構築支援を検討する根拠となる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
As developed economies accelerate fleet renewal toward cleaner vehicle technologies, used-vehicle exports to the Global South are surging, yet their environmental consequences have not been systematically assessed. This study quantifies the net life-cycle climate impacts of Japan’s used-vehicle exports for four powertrain types across ten destinations and identifies their system-level drivers. A modular attributional life cycle assessment with avoided-burden modeling was developed for screening. It decomposed the post-deregistration life cycle into manufacturing life extension, transport, second-life operation, and end-of-life material recovery, and evaluated it against a domestic recycling case. Three reference cases bounded the contribution of end-of-life recovery to the net climate balance. Without destination recovery, exports were net climate burdens for all powertrains except EVs on very low-carbon grids, and mean net GWP was approximately 8,400 kg CO 2 -eq per vehicle higher than under domestic recycling. With destination recovery, HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs were net-beneficial across all ten destinations (− 8,500 to − 140 kg CO 2 -eq per vehicle), largest for EVs and smallest for HEVs, whereas ICEV outcomes were destination-dependent. Only the EV benefit was robust to the basis used to credit recovered aluminum; HEV outcomes reversed to net burdens when recovered aluminum was credited against secondary cast alloy. Material recovery ranked first among system-level drivers, followed by grid carbon intensity and powertrain type; transport distance did not alter the ranking. The climate benefit of used-vehicle trade is therefore not inherent to life extension: it requires destination material recovery for ICEVs, HEVs, and PHEVs, and for EVs it arises without recovery only on very low-carbon grids.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s44498-026-00193-yfirst seen 2026-10-21 04:35:21
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