炭素価格と再生可能エネルギー投資インセンティブ：イタリア電力市場の研究
Carbon Pricing and Renewable Investment Incentives: A Study of the Italian Electricity Market (原題)
Marco Amendola, Marco Valente
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、イタリア電力市場の時間別シミュレーションモデルを用いて、炭素価格が再エネ投資を促進するという従来の前提を再検証する。分析の結果、炭素コストの電力価格への転嫁が十分に高い場合、炭素価格の上昇がガス火力の相対的な収益性を高め、再エネ投資を阻害する可能性があることを示す。この意図しない効果は、転嫁が限定的な場合や、再エネ補助金と組み合わせた場合には消滅し、政策ミックスの重要性を強調している。
English
This paper revisits the conventional view that carbon pricing discourages fossil-fuel investment by developing an hourly simulation model of the Italian electricity market. Results show that when carbon cost pass-through to electricity prices is high, higher carbon prices can increase the relative profitability of gas-fired generation compared to renewables, creating unintended investment incentives. This effect disappears with limited pass-through or when combined with green subsidies, highlighting the need for a complementary policy mix.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、GX推進法に基づく排出量取引制度の本格稼働が目前であり、炭素価格が電力市場や再エネ投資に与える影響は重要な論点。本論文の示唆は、日本の制度設計（特に転嫁率や補助金との併用）に直接応用可能で、政策ミックスの重要性を再認識させる。
In the global GX context
As carbon pricing mechanisms expand globally (EU ETS, UK ETS, and emerging systems), this paper provides critical evidence that carbon pricing alone may not drive renewable investment and can even backfire under high pass-through conditions. It underscores the need for complementary policies such as green subsidies, informing the design of carbon pricing in jurisdictions like the EU and beyond.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a nuanced model of carbon pricing effects on technology choice, challenging simplistic assumptions and offering a framework for analyzing market-specific conditions.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights how carbon cost pass-through can affect the profitability of gas vs. renewable projects, informing investment decisions and risk assessment in liberalized electricity markets.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates that carbon pricing effectiveness depends on market structure and pass-through rates, advocating for a policy mix that includes green subsidies to avoid unintended consequences.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract The electricity sector is one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, making its decarbonization crucial for achieving a net-zero economy. Carbon pricing is generally regarded as a key market-friendly instrument for decarbonizing the power sector, based on the premise that it discourages investment in fossil-fuel-based technologies. This paper revisits this conventional view by developing an hourly simulation model of the Italian electricity market to assess whether this mechanism operates as expected in practice. Our results show that carbon pricing may generate unintended investment incentives. Under certain conditions, particularly when the pass-through of carbon costs to electricity prices is sufficiently high, higher carbon prices can increase the relative profitability of gas-fired generation compared with renewable technologies. This unintended effect disappears when pass-through is limited or when carbon pricing is combined with green investment subsidies, highlighting the complementarity between these policy instruments. Overall, the findings show that the effectiveness of carbon pricing depends critically on market-specific characteristics and that an appropriate policy mix may be required to prevent unintended consequences and reduce the risk of policy failure.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-026-00404-2first seen 2026-09-05 05:07:00
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