Are mangrove carbon stocks climate-secure? Linking climate risk to blue carbon permanence
マングローブの炭素ストックは気候に対して安全か？気候リスクとブルーカーボンの永続性を結びつける (AI 翻訳)
Pradeep Marula Siddappanavara, Jayashree P
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本レビューは、マングローブ林のブルーカーボン貯留が気候変動によるリスク（サイクロン、海面上昇、海岸の圧迫）によって不安定化するメカニズムを整理。現在の炭素会計フレームワーク（Verra、IPCC）が将来の気候ハザードを十分に反映していないことを指摘し、サイト固有の安定性スコアリングに基づく「気候安全」な枠組みへの移行を提案する。
English
This review synthesizes mechanisms of carbon instability in mangrove blue carbon stocks due to acute (cyclones), chronic (sea-level rise), and synergistic (coastal squeeze) climate risks. It identifies a gap between market standards (Verra) and scientific frameworks (IPCC) in integrating future hazards, and proposes a transition to a climate-secure framework with site-specific stability scoring to ensure long-term credit integrity.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では沖縄など限定的なマングローブ林が存在するが、ブルーカーボンクレジット制度（Jブルークレジット）の拡大に伴い、気候リスクを考慮した永続性評価が重要になる。本論文は、炭素会計にリスク割引を導入する方法論的基礎を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper challenges the assumption of carbon permanence in blue carbon projects, which is critical for the integrity of carbon credits under Verra and other standards. It proposes a risk-screened accounting framework that could inform global NDCs and the evolution of carbon market buffer pools, directly addressing a key gap in current climate disclosure practices.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Highlights the need to integrate climate risk projections into carbon stock permanence models for blue carbon ecosystems.
🏢実務担当者:Provides a framework for adjusting buffer pools and project-level risk discounting based on site-specific climate hazard assessments.
🏛政策担当者:Argues that national carbon accounting under NDCs should incorporate climate risk to ensure the credibility of nature-based mitigation contributions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
As Nature-based Solutions gain prominence in global climate policy, mangrove forests have emerged as critical Blue Carbon (BC) assets. However, current carbon accounting frameworks largely treat these ecosystems as static repositories, often ignoring the accelerating risks posed by climate change itself. This review synthesises the physical and biochemical mechanisms of carbon instability – categorised into acute shocks (e.g., cyclones), chronic stressors (sea-level rise), and synergistic risks (coastal squeeze). The study argues that the foundational industry assumption of carbon permanence is increasingly decoupled from ecological reality. By comparing market standards (e.g., Verra) with scientific frameworks (IPCC), we identify a critical operational gap in how future climate hazards are integrated into project-level risk discounting and buffer pool management. To address this, we propose a transition from a carbon stock paradigm to a climate-secure framework. This new approach advocates for prospective, risk-screened accounting that quantifies carbon; site-specific stability scoring is essential to ensure the long-term integrity of BC credits and their meaningful contribution to National Determined Contributions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.30574/wjbphs.2026.26.1.0221first seen 2026-05-14 23:05:01
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