Assessing Multidimensional Risks of Just Transition in China’s Coal-Producing Regions: Evidence from Shanxi Province
中国の石炭産出地域における公正な移行の多次元リスク評価：山西省からの実証分析 (AI 翻訳)
Ji Hongjie
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国最大の石炭産出省である山西省を対象に、2060年までの公正な移行に伴う多次元的リスク（財政・雇用・生態・ガバナンス）をシナリオ分析と因子分析を用いて定量評価した。結果、2060年までに累積雇用損失43.02%、財政赤字6500億元超など深刻なリスクが相互に強化し合う複合システムリスクを形成することが示された。早期介入の必要性を強調している。
English
This study quantitatively assesses the multidimensional risks of a just transition in Shanxi, China's largest coal-producing province, using scenario simulation and factor analysis from 2025 to 2060. It finds severe fiscal gaps exceeding 650 billion yuan, cumulative job losses of 43.02%, ecological damage, and governance challenges that form a complex systemic risk requiring early intervention.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも北海道や福岡など石炭依存地域の移行政策が課題であり、本論文のリスク分析枠組みや定量評価手法は示唆に富む。ただし政策・制度コンテクストの違いに注意が必要。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global just transition scholarship by providing a rigorous quantitative risk assessment framework for coal-producing regions. Its findings on systemic risks (fiscal, employment, ecological) are relevant for any region undergoing coal phase-down, though contextual differences in governance and social safety nets must be considered.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative multidimensional risk framework for just transition that can be adapted and tested in other coal regions.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights specific fiscal and employment risk trajectories that regional planners should monitor and address early.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence-based support for designing integrated transition policies that tackle economic, social, and ecological risks simultaneously.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Systematic assessments of the multidimensional risks of a just transition in major coal-producing regions under China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets are essential to understanding the transition’s complexity, anticipating systemic crises, and designing effective policy interventions. Such assessments also provide critical scientific support for a smooth transition in similar regions. This study uses Shanxi Province, China’s largest coal producer, which contributes approximately one-quarter of the nation’s coal output and 59.85% of the nation’s fiscal revenue, as a case study. A multidimensional analytical framework was developed and multiple methods, including scenario simulation and factor analysis, were employed for a quantitative evaluation of the risk dynamics from 2025 to 2060. The results show that Shanxi’s just transition faces significant multidimensional risks: (1) economic and fiscal risks, with projected fiscal gaps exceeding 650 billion yuanby 2060; (2) severe employment and social stability risks, with cumulative job losses of 43.02% by 2060; (3) ecological resilience risks, with water and land resource losses exacerbating environmental damage; and (4) regional collaborative governance challenges, heightened by arduous coal supply guarantee tasks, low labor productivity in the coal sector, and divergent provincial transition policies. These risks interact and reinforce one another, forming a complex systemic risk that requires early intervention. This study refines the risk assessment framework for just transition, providing valuable decision-making support for major coal-producing regions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1142/s2345748126500090first seen 2026-05-31 05:27:59 · last seen 2026-06-03 05:06:10
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