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京津冀都市圏における水資源システムの多層設計と効率評価:水システムリスク評価を伴う分析

Multi-Level Design and Efficiency Assessment for Water Resources System in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Water System Risk Evaluation (原題)

Y.-Z. Chen, L.-Z. Yang, Zu-Yong Mao, Peng-Dong Yan, Y. Ren

Journal of Environmental Informatics📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-01-01#気候リスクOrigin: CN
DOI: 10.3808/jei.202600564
原典: https://doi.org/10.3808/jei.202600564

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

京津冀都市圏を対象に、水災害・水環境汚染・資源利用の3次元で水システムリスクを定量化し、それを多層計画モデルに初めて組み込んだ研究。経済便益最大化・社会的不平等最小化・汚染排出最小化を階層的に解き、水配分と経済便益の増加、汚染と不平等の低下を示す。河北の多くの都市でリスクが年1.52〜3.23%上昇する一方、水利用効率は年6.08%改善する。

English

This study builds an evaluation-optimization framework for water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, integrating water system risk (disaster, pollution, ecological footprint) into a multi-level programming model. It maximizes economic benefit while minimizing inequality and pollutant emissions via interactive fuzzy satisfaction. Results show rising risk in Hebei cities, 6.08% annual efficiency gains, and higher marginal benefits from multi-level versus single-level decisions.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

水リスク評価と資源配分最適化の手法は、日本企業の水リスク開示(TNFD・CDP Water)や流域ガバナンス検討に示唆を与える。ただし炭素・気候開示との直接接続は弱い。

In the global GX context

Adds a quantitative water-risk dimension to climate-risk modeling, relevant to TNFD/CDP Water and physical-risk assessment under ISSB, though it does not engage carbon or GHG disclosure frameworks directly.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:水リスクを多層最適化に統合する手法は、資源配分とリスク評価の統合研究の参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:水リスクの定量化次元は、TNFD・CDP Water対応の水リスク評価に応用可能。

🏛政策担当者:流域・都市圏レベルでの水配分と汚染・不平等のトレードオフ設計に示唆。

📄 Abstract(原文)

Water system risk refers to the cumulative effects of water-related threats driven by natural and anthropogenic pressures. In light of this challenge, this study develops an evaluation-optimization framework for water resources management in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. It represents the first attempt to incorporate water system risk into a multi-level programming model while simultaneously assessing water resources utilization efficiency. Water system risk is assessed through three key dimensions: water disasters, environmental pollution, and resource utilization, as quantified by water disaster risk, water environmental risk, and water resources ecological footprint. The multi-level programming model is constructed with the goals of maximizing economic benefits, minimizing social inequality coefficient, and minimizing water pollutant emissions in a hierarchical order, which is solved by interactive fuzzy satisfaction algorithm. Results reveal that a majority of cities especially in Hebei facing increased water system risk, of which water disaster risk and water environmental risk would annually rise by 1.52% and 3.23%, respectively. Water resources utilization efficiency annually increased by 6.08%. Beijing and Tianjin had lower efficiency yet higher growth compared with Hebei. The optimal amounts of allocated water resources and economic benefits would respectively increase by 16.04% and 35.80%, while pollutant emissions and inequality coefficient would decline. Sensitivity analysis shows that water conservation curbs pollutant emissions (especially in domestic sector), yet restricts economic benefits and social equality. The marginal benefit of the multi-level decision is higher than that of single-level decisions. Findings offer insights for implementing targeted interventions in high-risk and water-inefficient cities while balancing economic-environmental-social priorities.

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