Coal Power Regime Destabilisation and Pre-Phase-Out Dynamics: A Comparative Case Study of South Africa and Indonesia
石炭火力レジームの不安定化とフェーズアウト前の動態：南アフリカとインドネシアの比較事例研究 (AI 翻訳)
Emily Tyler, Fikri Muhammad
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、南アフリカとインドネシアを対象に、脱石炭が進まない新興国における「フェーズアウト前」の動態を理論化する。制度的変化と社会技術的移行の枠組みを組み合わせ、両国の共通点と相違点を分析。南アでは規制緩和と競争導入が不安定化を促進する一方、インドネシアでは石炭利権層の収益性重視が現状維持をもたらす。再生可能エネルギーのコスト低下や石炭輸出価格が気候政策やJETP資金より大きな影響を与え、JETP設計やCBAM対応への示唆を提供する。
English
This paper theorizes 'pre-phase-out' dynamics in emerging economies lacking explicit coal phase-out commitments, comparing South Africa and Indonesia (1998-2024). Despite similarities, regime destabilization differs: South Africa's underperformance drives reform, while Indonesia's profitable regime sustains status quo under coal oligarchs. Declining renewables costs and coal export prices prove more destabilizing than climate policy or JETP finance, with implications for JETP design, CBAM response, and just transition strategies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は石炭火力輸出やJETPを通じて新興国の石炭火力に関与しており、本論文の示唆は日本の国際協力戦略や関与のあり方に直接関係する。特に、JETP資金の効果やCBAMの影響を理解する上で有用。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global discourse on coal phase-out in developing economies, offering insights for JETP design and CBAM effectiveness. It challenges assumptions that climate finance alone drives transition, highlighting economic pressures like renewables cost decline and coal export prices.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comparative theoretical framework for studying pre-phase-out dynamics in coal-dependent Global South countries.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights non-climate economic factors (e.g., coal export prices, renewables costs) that may be more effective than JETP finance in driving coal phase-out overseas.
🏛政策担当者:Informs JETP and CBAM policy design by showing that international economic forces, not just climate finance, destabilize coal regimes.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Coal phase-out dynamics are well theorised in industrialised contexts but poorly understood in emerging economies, where explicit phase-out commitments remain absent. This comparative study of South Africa and Indonesia (1998–2024) theorises ‘pre-phase-out’ dynamics by using a framework combining endogenous institutional change and socio-technical transitions literatures. Despite superficial similarities, the cases diverge in important ways. In South Africa, regime underperformance and contestation over centralised sector structure generate episodic destabilisation driven by a reform logic. In Indonesia, a legitimate, performant regime is sustained by coal oligarchs whose commitment is conditional on profitability rather than ideology. International economic pressures of renewables cost decline and coal export prices prove more destabilising than climate policy or Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) finance. Reframing regime destabilisation as a precursor to phase-out yields implications for JETP design, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) response, and just transition strategy in coal-dependent Global South contexts.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1177/10704965261453770first seen 2026-06-22 04:52:05
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