Energy planning towards absolute environmental sustainability: identifying key demand-side sufficiency levers to stay within planetary boundaries using sensitivity analysis tool
絶対的な環境持続可能性に向けたエネルギー計画：感度分析ツールを用いて惑星境界内にとどまるための主要な需要側充足レバーの特定 (AI 翻訳)
Nicolas Ghuys, Diederik Coppitters, Anne van den Oever, Mahdi Kchaou, Hervé Jeanmart, Francesco Contino
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、惑星境界に基づくライフサイクル評価をエネルギーシステム最適化に統合し、最終エネルギー需要を決定変数として扱う。ベルギーへの適用により、モビリティ需要が環境圧力の主要因であり、供給側の脱炭素化だけでは不十分であることを示し、需要側充足が絶対的持続可能性に不可欠と結論づける。
English
This study integrates planetary boundary-based life cycle assessment into energy system optimization, showing that even low-carbon pathways violate multiple planetary boundaries. By treating final energy demand as a decision variable and using sensitivity analysis, the authors identify individual mobility demand as the key leverage point for achieving absolute environmental sustainability. The results emphasize that technological substitution must be complemented by demand-side sufficiency, particularly in mobility.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX戦略ではエネルギー需給構造の転換が課題だが、本論文は需要側の充足策、特にモビリティ分野の重要性を定量的に示す。絶対的持続可能性を基準としたエネルギー計画の方法論は、日本の長期シナリオ策定に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global discussion on the limits of supply-side decarbonization and the necessity of demand-side sufficiency for staying within planetary boundaries. It provides a robust method for integrating absolute sustainability thresholds into energy system models, relevant for countries developing long-term decarbonization strategies under the Paris Agreement and beyond.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:This paper demonstrates the necessity of incorporating demand-side sufficiency into energy system models to achieve absolute sustainability, offering a methodology for sensitivity analysis of end-use demands.
🏛政策担当者:The findings highlight that policy should prioritize demand-side measures, especially mobility sufficiency, alongside supply-side decarbonization to avoid transgression of planetary boundaries.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Human activities have already transgressed several planetary boundaries, yet energy system models remain largely focused on greenhouse gas mitigation, reflecting their original purpose of addressing climate change. Recent integrations of Planetary boundary-based Life Cycle Assessment into Energy System Optimisation Models show that even cost-optimal low-carbon pathways systematically violate multiple planetary boundaries, indicating that supply-side decarbonisation alone is insufficient for absolute environmental sustainability. At a 2050 horizon, where energy supply is largely decarbonised and technologies are assumed mature, further impact reductions through techno-economic optimisation become limited, positioning final energy demand as a key remaining lever for restoring feasibility under planetary constraints. To address this gap, we ex-tend an Energy System Optimisation framework coupled with a Planetary Boundary framework by explicitly treating final energy demand as a decision variable and exploring energy sufficiency configurations within a multi-objective formulation minimising system cost and environmental pressures. The national-scale EnergyScopeTD model is coupled with the RHEIA uncertainty analysis framework to propagate uncertainty in final energy demands and to identify demand-side drivers through global sensitivity analysis. Applied to Belgium, the results show that individual mobility demand is the dominant driver of environmental pressures across multiple planetary boundaries, with consistently higher influence than other end-use demands. While large-scale vehicle fleet electrification substantially reduces climate impacts, it simultaneously shifts pressures toward other environmental dimensions, indicating that technological substitution alone, even combined with moderate sufficiency, is insufficient to achieve absolute sustainability. Overall, the results confirm that energy sufficiency, particularly in mobility, is necessary for operating energy systems within planetary limits, and that anchoring system design in absolute sustainability thresholds provides a robust basis for prioritising demand-side mitigation strategies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.175018first seen 2026-07-13 04:54:33
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。