Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve in South Asia: A Pooled Mean Group Analysis of Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions
南アジアにおける環境クズネッツ曲線の再検討：総温室効果ガス排出量のプール平均グループ分析 (AI 翻訳)
Arjun Gurung
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、1990年から2023年までの南アジア5カ国（バングラデシュ、インド、ネパール、パキスタン、スリランカ）を対象に、環境クズネッツ曲線仮説を再検討する。二酸化炭素に焦点を当てた従来の研究とは異なり、総温室効果ガス排出量を分析し、農業と工業化の影響を考慮する。PMG推定器を用いた結果、所得と排出量の間にU字型関係（逆U字型ではなく）が確認され、転換点は一人当たり1,571米ドルである。エネルギー消費が長期的な排出の主要な要因であり、貿易開放度は汚染逃避地仮説と整合的な正の相関を示すが、FDIの影響は有意でない。
English
This paper reexamines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for five South Asian economies (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) from 1990–2023. Unlike standard carbon-focused models, it analyzes total greenhouse gas emissions and captures the region's agricultural footprint alongside industrialization. Using a Pooled Mean Group estimator, the study finds a U-shaped relationship between income and emissions (opposite of the inverted-U EKC), with a turning point at US$1,571 per capita. Energy consumption is the most consistent long-run driver, and trade openness correlates positively with emissions, supporting the pollution haven hypothesis, while FDI is insignificant.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は南アジアを対象としているが、日本における排出削減政策の検討や、貿易開放度と排出の関係に関する議論に示唆を与える可能性がある。ただし、日本固有の政策文脈には直接関連しない。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global EKC literature by using total GHG emissions and focusing on South Asia, a region undergoing rapid industrialization. The U-shaped relationship challenges the traditional EKC and underscores the need for active policy intervention in developing economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological contribution by employing PMG on total GHG emissions in South Asia, with robustness checks via DOLS.
🏢実務担当者:Not directly applicable to corporate sustainability teams, but the insights on trade openness and emissions could inform supply chain risk assessments.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence against the EKC self-correction hypothesis in South Asia, suggesting that continued policy intervention is needed to decouple growth from emissions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract This paper reexamines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis of South Asian economies Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1990–2023. Moving beyond standard carbon focused models, this study analyzes the determinants of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to capture the region agricultural footprint alongside rapid industrialization. The Cross Sectionally Augmented IPS (CIPS) panel unit root test results show the mixed I (0)/I (1) integration order suitable for panel ARDL framework. Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is preferred over Dynamic Fixed Effects by the Hausman test and robustness is assessed using alternative lag selection and DOLS. PMG, alternative lag selection and DOLS all indicate a U-shaped relationship between income and emissions, the opposite of the traditional inverted-U EKC. With a turning point of US$ 1,571 per capita, many south Asian economies have crossed this threshold. Energy consumption is most consistent driver in long run in all estimators. The correlation between trade openness and emissions is positive and consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis, whereas the effects of FDI on emissions are found to be insignificant, and the effect of urbanization on emissions is different by country and by estimator. The pooled error correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating that it is a long-run attractor and that the adjustment rate is around 45% per year. Growth in GHG emissions in South Asia does not happen automatically under the EKC self-correction mechanism. JEL Classification: Q56, Q54, C23, O53
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10487515/v1first seen 2026-07-30 06:36:26
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