Power Sector Transformation: Nationally Determined Contributions Aligned Policy Analysis Using the PAK-TIMES Model

電力セクターの変革：PAK-TIMESモデルを用いた国別決定貢献（NDC）整合政策分析 (AI 翻訳)

Danish Hameed, Kaleem Anwar Mir, Tanzeel ur Rashid, Sibghat Ullah, Muhammad Umer Sohail, Allah Ditta, Muhammad Waheed Azam, Nausheen Mohyuddin

World📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-07#エネルギー転換Origin: Global対象セクター: power

DOI: 10.3390/world7070115

原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/world7070115

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究はPAK-TIMESモデルを用い、2022～2050年のパキスタン電力セクターにおけるエネルギー効率向上と再生可能エネルギー導入の政策シナリオを評価。BAUシナリオではエネルギー需要が3459PJから7912PJに急増するが、効率化シナリオで供給を2.3%削減、再エネ統合で最大1.3%拡大し、GHG排出を最大15%削減可能と示した。政策介入がエネルギー課題と気候変動対策の同時解決に重要と結論。

English

Using the PAK-TIMES model, this study evaluates energy efficiency and renewable energy policy scenarios for Pakistan's power sector from 2022 to 2050. Under BAU, energy demand surges from 3459 PJ to 7912 PJ; efficiency scenarios reduce supply by 2.3%, while renewable integration expands it by up to 1.3% and cuts GHG emissions by up to 15%. Policy interventions are crucial for addressing energy challenges and climate mitigation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

パキスタンのNDC達成に向けた電力セクター政策の定量的評価は、日本がアジアの途上国支援（JCM等）を検討する際の参考となる。ただし、日本の国内GX文脈（SSBJや有報）との直接的な関連は薄い。

In the global GX context

This study provides a quantitative framework for NDC-aligned power sector policy in a developing country, relevant for global climate finance and technology transfer discussions. It demonstrates the use of energy system models for decarbonization planning, contributing to the literature on energy transition pathways in the Global South.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Energy system modelers can learn from the PAK-TIMES application for NDC analysis; the scenario design and results offer a template for similar studies.

🏢実務担当者:Government energy planners and utility managers can use the findings to prioritize energy efficiency and renewable policies for NDC compliance.

🏛政策担当者:The study supports Pakistan's NDC implementation and can inform international climate negotiations on sectoral targets and support needs.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This study conducts a comprehensive investigation into prospective policy alternatives within Pakistan’s power sector using the PAK-TIMES model, targeting the critical challenges of energy scarcity and environmental degradation. Focused on the period from 2022 to 2050, the research evaluates the impact of various policies on energy consumption, supplies, carbon emissions, and expenditures in alignment with Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) directed at combatting climate change. The study explores three distinct scenarios: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, along with five policy (5% Eff, 10% Eff, 15% REN, 30% REN, 50% REN) scenarios categorized into energy efficiency and renewable integration. The first scenario concentrates on the deployment of energy-efficient devices, while the second scenario delves into diverse levels of renewable energy integration. Key results reveal that energy demand is projected to surge substantially under the BAU scenario, increasing significantly from 3459 PJ in 2022 to 7912 PJ by 2050. In contrast, scenarios prioritizing energy efficiency can potentially curb the total energy supply by 2.3%, while renewable energy integration can expand up to 1.3% compared to business-as-usual by 2050. These alternative scenarios also exhibit the potential to slash greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the power sector by up to 15%. Notably, the PAK-TIMES model emerges as a valuable decision support tool for the Pakistani government to facilitate the execution of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies aimed at fulfilling its NDCs, while also contributing to the fulfillment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 (affordable and clean energy) and 13 (climate action). The study underscores the pivotal role of policy interventions in simultaneously mitigating energy challenges and combatting climate change for sustainable development.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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