信頼できる英国：ガスを使った場合の英国電力コスト
Reliable Britain: what Britain's electricity would have cost on gas (原題)
Lyon, Richard
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2002〜2024年の英国電力について、実際のシステムと「2002年時点の路線（炭素価格なし・旧設備は寿命や汚染規制で閉鎖）」をモデルで比較し、ネットゼロ政策による追加コストを試算。差額は£140.3bn（世帯当たり£5,298）と推計され、主要な判断前提を変えると£120.8〜152.7bnの幅。うち£82.9bnは炭素価格分で控除可能と整理している。
English
A technical note models two supply bills for Britain's electricity each year 2002–2024: the actual system versus a counterfactual 2002 trajectory with no carbon price. The modelled net-zero cost gap is £140.3bn (£5,298 per household), ranging £120.8–152.7bn under alternative assumptions, of which £82.9bn is carbon embedded in prices.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策論議でも「脱炭素コストの可視化」は重要論点。炭素価格を含む追加コストを世帯・政策別に分解する手法は、GX推進やカーボンプライシング導入議論の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Directly informs the global debate on the distributional cost of decarbonization and carbon pricing, relevant to transition-finance and just-transition policy design where disclosure of policy costs is increasingly demanded.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:脱炭素政策の反実仮想コスト推計手法と感度分析の枠組みを参考にできる。
🏢実務担当者:電力調達コストや炭素価格が最終価格に与える影響の構造を把握する材料になる。
🏛政策担当者:カーボンプライシングや再エネ政策の家計負担を定量化する際の試算枠組みとして有用。
📄 Abstract（原文）
What did Britain's climate policies since 2002 add to the cost of the electricity it used? This technical note compares two modelled supply bills for each year from 2002 to 2024: one for the actual system, and one for the same electricity on the road Britain was on in 2002, where old plant closes when it wears out, when pollution law shuts it, or when it would not have paid its way without a carbon price; the cheapest new plant holds a 7.4% margin; and fuel is bought at actual prices, with no carbon price. The gap is the difference. All figures are for 2002–24, in 2024 prices. Valuing the actual system's electricity at reconstructed wholesale prices, with the other bill lines, gives £955.5bn, against £815.2bn, modelled, for the road; these are not audited totals of settled customer bills. The gap, the extra cost of net zero on electricity bills, is £140.3bn, modelled; changing the main judgement calls one at a time moves it between £120.8bn and £152.7bn. Of it, £82.9bn before VAT is carbon in the price, which readers may subtract. Per household the gap is £5,298, modelled, an average share of a national gap. The households' allocated share is £2,286, modelled (§2.7). Lost value, what users gave up by using less electricity, is a labelled estimate of £9.8bn, kept apart.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23652965first seen 2026-10-26 04:12:12
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