Integrated scenario analysis under energy, water and decarbonization stress: the case of Rwanda
エネルギー・水・脱炭素化ストレス下の統合シナリオ分析：ルワンダの事例 (AI 翻訳)
Phoebe Koundouri, Angelos Alamanos, Ioannis Arampatzidis, Ebun Akinsete, Dimitrios Raptis, Anna Triantafyllidou, Miranda McLannahan, Sotirios Mavrogenis
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ルワンダを対象に、水資源とエネルギー供給、排出量の相互作用を考慮した統合シナリオモデルを構築。2050年までの需要成長、水ストレス、供給側選択がエネルギー安全保障と排出経路に与える影響を分析。需要側のエネルギー効率が最も影響力のあるレバーであり、供給側施策は主に電源構成とシステムのレジリエンスを形成する。
English
This study develops a national-scale water-energy-emissions scenario model for Rwanda to explore how demand growth, hydrological stress, and supply-side choices shape future energy security and emissions pathways to 2050. Results show emissions remain demand-driven under SSP2 and SSP5; demand-side energy efficiency is the most influential lever, while supply-side measures reshape the electricity mix and resilience rather than total emissions. The analysis identifies effective combinations of efficiency, electrification, renewables, thermal retirement, water efficiency, and hydrological risk management.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文はルワンダを対象としているが、水・エネルギー・排出の統合シナリオ分析の枠組みは、日本のようなエネルギー依存度の高い国にも応用可能。特に、気候変動による水ストレスとエネルギー需給の連関を考慮した政策立案の重要性を示唆。
In the global GX context
This paper offers a multi-sector scenario modeling approach for a developing country facing compounding water-energy-emissions stress. It demonstrates how demand-side efficiency dominates as a decarbonization lever, a finding relevant for global climate policy debates. The integrated framework is transferable to other national contexts.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a replicable integrated scenario model for water-energy-emissions analysis adaptable to other national contexts.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the critical role of demand-side energy efficiency and water-energy nexus management in national decarbonization strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Compounding crises increasingly expose hidden fragilities in socio-technical systems. At the same time, they generate political momentum and practical urgency for institutional and governance innovation, as emergency measures often become prototypes for routine practice. This paper develops a national-scale, multi-sector water-energy-emissions (WEE) scenario model for Rwanda and uses it to test how demand growth, hydrological stress, and supply-side choices jointly shape future energy security and emissions trajectories through 2050. Water enters the framework in two directions: as a determinant of energy supply, through the translation of river-discharge seasonality and drought stress into monthly hydropower availability, and as a consumer of energy, through the electricity required to supply, distribute, and treat water and wastewater. The analysis shows that, under SSP2 and especially SSP5 growth conditions, emissions remain strongly demand-driven; therefore, even ambitious demand-side and supply-side measures are best interpreted as pathways that moderate, rather than fully reverse, emissions growth. A scenario decomposition further indicates that demand-side energy efficiency is the single most influential lever, while supply-side measures primarily reshape the electricity mix and system resilience rather than aggregate emissions. The contribution of the study is to identify which combinations of efficiency, electrification, renewable deployment, thermal retirement, water-service efficiency, and hydrological risk management most effectively reduce system stress and improve resilience under compound crises.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2026.1900266first seen 2026-07-30 06:34:29
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