Learning from the past and planning for Nepal’s sustainable energy future: bottom-up modelling in LEAP
過去から学び、ネパールの持続可能なエネルギー未来を計画する：LEAPを用いたボトムアップモデリング (AI 翻訳)
Utsav Bhattarai, Tek Maraseni, Laxmi Prasad Devkota, Armando Apan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、LEAPを用いたボトムアップモデル（BU-NEP）を開発し、ネパールのエネルギー需要・供給・排出量を2021～2050年にわたりシミュレーションした。8つのシナリオを分析し、統合的対策により排出量を66.6 MtCO2-eから10.5 MtCO2-eに削減可能であることを示した。家庭部門の近代化だけでエネルギー消費を53%削減できるとし、水力発電の重要性と石油依存からの脱却を指摘している。
English
This paper develops a bottom-up LEAP model for Nepal (BU-NEP) to simulate energy demand, supply, and emissions from 2021 to 2050 across eight scenarios. Results show integrated interventions could reduce emissions from 66.6 MtCO2-e to 10.5 MtCO2-e by 2050, with household modernization cutting energy use by 53%. Hydropower is crucial for a sustainable energy future, but petroleum dependence and underutilized renewables must be addressed through agile policies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は主にネパールの事例であるが、発展途上国におけるエネルギー転換モデルの構築手法として、日本の国際協力や技術輸出の参考になる。SSBJや有報とは直接関係ないが、政策とモデリングの統合アプローチは示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a robust bottom-up modeling framework for developing countries' energy planning, relevant to global GX efforts such as the UNFCCC process and developing nations' NDC enhancement. The methodology of integrating policy reviews with scenario modeling can inform energy transition strategies in other emerging economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:LEAPモデルの詳細な構築手法とバリデーションは、エネルギーシステムモデリングの研究者にとって参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:政策立案者向けのシナリオ分析手法として、企業のエネルギー戦略策定に応用可能。
🏛政策担当者:ネパールの排出削減目標達成に向けた具体的な政策介入ポイントを示しており、他国の政策設計にも活用できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Nepal has announced an economy-wide net-zero emissions target by 2045. To achieve this, ambitious energy-related goals were set in the past, yet many targets remain unmet. We developed and validated a bottom-up model for Nepal (BU-NEP) using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), quantifying energy demand, supply and emissions for scenarios from 2021 to 2050 to assess persistence of pathways beyond 2045. This study examined eight future energy scenarios for Nepal which reflected continuation of past development trends and policy sphere aligned with both domestic legislative milestones and international climate change pledges. The cases were identified through an extensive review of 53 policies from 1984 to 2022 and consultations with nine energy experts. Four demand sectors (domestic, industrial, commercial, and transportation), 20 end-uses, 11 major fuel-types and eight supply side technologies were considered in the simulation. The BU-NEP model was calibrated for 2019, validated for 2021 and 2022, and simulated from 2021 to 2050 at annual timesteps, utilizing comprehensive secondary data from multiple national and international sources. The results indicate significant potential for savings in energy consumption (up to 300 Mtoe until 2050) and emissions reduction (from 66.6 MtCO2-e in baseline to 10.5 MtCO2-e by 2050) through integrated demand and supply interventions. Modernizing the household sector by adopting cleaner energy and efficient appliances could potentially reduce energy consumption by 53% by 2050. Furthermore, energy-related emissions across all sectors could be decreased by at least 60% by 2050. Therefore, a sustainable and self-sufficient energy future of Nepal could be achieved from diversified energy mix, with hydropower playing a crucial role, while also addressing the challenges of petroleum dependence and underutilized domestic renewables, supported by agile policy measures rather than ‘bike shedding’. The findings emphasize the need for targeted sectoral strategies and strong policy frameworks to balance energy security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. A holistic approach integrating supply-side and demand-side management, along with government-society synergy and capacity building, is crucial for long-term energy goals, which could be relevant to other developing nations as well.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-026-10087-wfirst seen 2026-05-15 17:22:35
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。