一次元漏洩モデルを用いた地中CO2貯留サイトの長期リスク評価のための不確実性定量化手法
An Uncertainty Quantification Approach for Long-Term Risk Assessment of Geological CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Sites Using a One-Dimensional Leakage Model (原題)
Amrhein SKT, Most T, Walther C
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
地中CO2貯留サイトの長期漏洩リスクを、透水係数や粘度などの不確実な岩層パラメータを考慮した一次元漏洩モデルで評価する手法を提案。ドイツのKetzinとカナダのQuestの2サイトで検証し、シール層特性のばらつきがモデル出力変動を支配することを示した。パラメータ数が少なく初期構想段階の安全性評価や追加知見の必要性定量化に有用。
English
A methodology for long-term leakage risk assessment of geological CO2 storage sites is presented, using a simple one-dimensional leakage model that accounts for uncertain rock-layer parameters such as permeability and viscosity. Applied to the Ketzin (Germany) and Quest (Canada) projects, results show that seal-layer property scatter dominates output variation, and the two sites differ greatly in long-term safety. The approach is valuable in early conceptual stages, requiring few parameters and directly quantifying further knowledge needs.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではCCSはGX推進法・JOGMEC主導の先進的CCS事業で重要政策。本手法は国内候補サイトの初期リスク評価や許認可・モニタリング計画に活用可能。
In the global GX context
Globally, CCS is central to net-zero pathways and transition finance under ISSB/TCFD physical-risk disclosure. This uncertainty-quantification method supports early-stage site screening and regulatory safety cases, though it is not directly tied to disclosure frameworks.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:CCS貯留サイトの長期漏洩リスク評価における不確実性定量化の簡便な枠組みを提供。
🏢実務担当者:CCSプロジェクトの初期段階で、シール層パラメータの不確実性が安全性に与える影響を評価する際に活用可能。
🏛政策担当者:CCS許認可やモニタリング要件の設計において、初期段階のリスク評価手法として参考になる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In this paper, a methodology for safety assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage projects is presented, which investigates the long term leakage of the CO2 reservoir in a geological storage site. Based on a simple, one-dimensional leakage model, the reservoir integrity is investigated by considering uncertain rock layer parameters such as permeability and viscosity. Two well known storage projects, Kezin in Germany and Quest in Canada are investigated exemplarily and the leakage time, when the first stored CO2 reaches the earth ground surface and the CO2 flux could be estimated in a statistical manner. The obtained results could show, that the scatter of the seal layer properties is mainly dominating the variation of the investigated model outputs. Thus, a sufficient accurate knowledge of these parameters is critical for a successful uncertainty quantification of CO2 storage reservoir. The analyses of the storage sites Kezin and Quest show highly different results with respect to the long term safety. The proposed method is a valuable approach for investigations in early conceptional states, since it requires only a few parameters and can directly quantify additional needs for further knowledge gain.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Research Square https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202609.2139.v1first seen 2026-09-30 04:35:38 · last seen 2026-10-02 04:22:01
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