Climate policy coordination and macroeconomic risks: Cross-border carbon spillovers, global value chains, and climate scenario analysis
Bok‐Keun Yu, Young-Han Kim
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、気候変動と政策対応のマクロ経済影響を分析するDSGEモデルを開発。NGFSの7シナリオを基に、国境を越えた炭素波及効果をグローバルバリューチェーンを通じて組み込んだ点が新規。政策の非協調的な場合、より大きな産出損失と変動性をもたらす一方、協調的な取り組みが経済的・環境的損害を大幅に軽減することを示した。国際的な気候変動リスク評価のための実用的なツールを提供。
English
This paper develops a DSGE model incorporating cross-border carbon spillovers through global value chains to analyze macroeconomic impacts under seven NGFS scenarios. It finds that fragmented climate policies lead to larger output losses and volatility, while coordinated efforts significantly mitigate economic and environmental damage. The model provides a tractable tool for assessing transition risks in a globally interconnected economy.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、日本の金融当局や企業が国際的な炭素税の協調・非協調の影響を理解するのに有用。日本はGVCに深く組み込まれており、海外の炭素政策の波及効果が国内生産に与える影響を定量評価する枠組みとして参考になる。また、NGFSシナリオを用いることで、日本における気候シナリオ分析の高度化に寄与する。
In the global GX context
This paper is highly relevant for global central banks and financial regulators, including those in Japan, as it demonstrates the macroeconomic costs of fragmented climate policies. It highlights the importance of international coordination in carbon pricing, which is a key issue in the ISSB and TCFD frameworks. The model's integration of global value chain spillovers offers a practical tool for climate scenario analysis in any open economy.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:GX researchers can adopt this DSGE framework to model cross-border climate spillovers and policy coordination, advancing quantitative climate risk analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can use the scenario analysis insights to understand how international policy fragmentation could impact their supply chains and market access.
🏛政策担当者:Central banks and financial regulators should note that coordinated carbon pricing reduces output volatility, supporting the case for global policy alignment in transition finance.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of climate change and policy responses under seven scenarios developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). A novel feature of the model is the incorporation of cross-border carbon spillovers through global value chain linkages, allowing foreign emissions to affect domestic output. This mechanism captures the international transmission of environmental risks — often overlooked in prior DSGE studies focused on closed economies or domestic channels. The model also endogenizes the effects of policy (mis)alignment across countries by introducing carbon tax complementarity, enabling the evaluation of transition risks under varying degrees of global coordination. Simulation results show that fragmented policies lead to larger output losses and greater volatility, while coordinated efforts significantly mitigate both economic and environmental damage. By integrating forward-looking NGFS scenarios with international externalities, the paper contributes a tractable and policy-relevant tool for assessing climate transition risks in a globally interconnected macroeconomic environment.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2026.105481first seen 2026-06-24 04:41:36
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