グローバルサウスの公正なエネルギー移行を定量化する：地域エネルギー正義指数（TEJI）とコロンビアのエネルギー大型プロジェクト6件を対象とした財政・エネルギー同期モデリング

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:複合指数の設計・相互盲検スコアリング（κ=0.792）と財政同期モデルの手法が、正義指標の操作化研究の雛形になる。

🏢実務担当者:新興国での再エネ・水素プロジェクトの社会リスク評価や地域合意形成のチェックリストとして活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:炭化水素依存地域での財源移行と再エネ移転制度の設計見直しに、定量根拠を提供する。

Justice metrics for energy transitions in the Global South remain conceptually rich but operationally underdeveloped, limiting their use in planning and project benchmarking. This paper develops the Territorial Energy Justice Index (TEJI), a composite indicator integrating eleven sub-indicators across five dimensions—distributive, procedural, recognition, restorative and fiscal-territorial—benchmarked against normative targets. The index is calibrated on six Colombian energy mega-projects spanning wind, solar, green hydrogen, hydropower and gas-fired generation, the latter a fossil-fuel counterfactual rather than a renewable case. Sub-indicators draw on a triangulated dataset combining public planning and regulatory data, a multi-case documentary audit, and a participatory dataset of 259 respondents across ten workshops. The paper also specifies a three-scenario Fiscal-Energy Synchronisation Curve (FESC) quantifying the alignment between hydrocarbon revenue decline and renewable revenue maturation in five hydrocarbon-producing departments. All six TEJI cases were empirically calibrated through independent, mutually blinded co-author scoring, yielding a quadratic-weighted inter-rater kappa of 0.792 across 66 sub-indicator ratings (substantial agreement). Aggregate TEJI scores range from 9.2/100–35.8/100, with restorative justice the weakest dimension on average (14.6/100); a four-dimension variant excluding the FESC-scope-limited fiscal dimension is also reported. The Caribbean wind corridor shows a marked mismatch between potential and access: La Guajira holds an estimated 51–60% of national onshore wind potential yet the lowest electricity coverage among comparably endowed departments (55.7%), a pattern termed the Caribbean paradox. FESC scenarios show that, compounding real 2025 decline rates, departmental oil revenue falls by approximately 32%, coal by 39–51%, and gas by 68–73% over 2026–2035; existing renewable transfer mechanisms cannot offset this, as FNCER plants transfer only 1% of gross sales against 10% for thermal/hydroelectric plants under Colombian law. The TEJI--FESC framework is reproducible and potentially transferable to other hydrocarbon-dependent economies, offering an operational instrument for project licensing and just-transition monitoring.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2026.109741first seen 2026-10-18 04:42:21