Modeling Thailand's Municipal Solid Waste Decarbonization: A System Dynamics Approach to Aligning MSW Management with NDC 3.0 and Net Zero 2050 Goals
タイの一般廃棄物脱炭素化のモデリング：NDC 3.0およびネットゼロ2050目標に整合する廃棄物管理のためのシステムダイナミクスアプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Nattarat Phaingam, Phairat Usubharatana, Harnpon Phungrassami
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究はシステムダイナミクスモデルを用いてタイの一般廃棄物由来の温室効果ガス排出を2050年までシミュレーション。観光需要ショックやコロナ回復パターンを組み込み、4つのシナリオ（現状、国家ロードマップ、循環型レジリエンス、ネットゼロ整合）を評価。結果、ネットゼロ整合シナリオでNDC 3.0目標と整合する削減が可能で、生分解性廃棄物の埋立回避が主要な排出削減手段と特定された。
English
This study applies a System Dynamics model to simulate GHG emissions from municipal solid waste in Thailand through 2050, incorporating tourism demand shocks and post-COVID recovery. Four scenarios are evaluated: Baseline Dynamic, National Roadmap, Circular Resilience, and Net Zero Alignment. Results show that only the Net Zero Alignment scenario meets Thailand's ambitious NDC 3.0 targets, with landfill diversion of biodegradable waste identified as the key leverage point for methane reduction.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
タイの事例ではあるが、日本でも廃棄物分野の脱炭素化は重要課題。特に、生ごみの埋立回避によるメタン削減は日本の廃棄物処理政策（バイオガス化、コンポスト化）にも示唆を与える。NDC目標と整合したシナリオ分析手法は、日本の自治体や廃棄物処理業者にとって参考となる。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a robust modeling framework for aligning municipal solid waste management with national climate targets, demonstrating the critical role of landfill diversion for biodegradable waste. The approach is globally relevant for countries integrating waste sector mitigation into their NDCs and net-zero strategies, particularly in developing nations with growing waste volumes.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a validated system dynamics model for waste-sector GHG projections, including tourism and recovery dynamics, useful for similar studies in other countries.
🏢実務担当者:Identifies landfill diversion of biodegradable waste as the highest-impact intervention, guiding municipal waste management strategies toward decarbonization.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates scenario pathways to align waste management with NDC 3.0 and net-zero targets, offering evidence for policy design in waste sector mitigation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study applied a System Dynamics (SD) model to simulate Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Thailand through to 2050. Calibrated with 2008-2024 data, the model uniquely incorporated tourism-related demand shocks and post-COVID recovery patterns alongside population, GDP, and urbanization drivers. Four scenarios were evaluated: Baseline Dynamic (BD), National Roadmap (NR), Circular Resilience (CR), and Net Zero Alignment (NZA). The results indicate that under BD, emissions reach 19.9 Mt CO2e by 2050, failing national climate targets. Meanwhile, NR moderates growth (16.4 Mt CO2e) and only CR (6.5 Mt CO2e) and NZA (4.6 Mt CO2e) achieve substantial reductions. Notably, the NZA scenario demonstrated alignment with Thailand’s ambitious NDC 3.0 target of a 47% reduction by 2035. Landfill diversion of biodegradable waste was identified as the primary leverage point, minimizing methane generation at the source. This research provides a strategic framework to synchronize circular economy policies with explicit decarbonization objectives, supporting Thailand’s transition toward Net Zero 2050.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.18107first seen 2026-06-07 05:12:16
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