EU・トルコ間の加工農産食品貿易における炭素国境調整、市場反応、食料安全保障のトレードオフ：較正スタッケルベルク分析

Carbon Border Adjustment, Market Responses, and Food-Security Trade-Offs in EU–Türkiye Processed Agri-Food Trade: A Calibrated Stackelberg Analysis (原題)

Gökhan Uzel, Gülnaz Hale Üstün, Serkan Gürlük

Agriculture📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-29#炭素価格経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: agriculture

DOI: 10.3390/agriculture16212360

原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16212360

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、EUがトルコからの加工農産食品輸入に炭素国境調整を拡張する場合の事前経済・環境影響を、較正スタッケルベルクモデルで分析する。EUが製品別炭素課金を設定し、トルコが輸出量を調整する構造。羊肉・牛肉で最適課金が高く、食料安全保障制約を課すと羊肉の課金は27.8USD/tCO2eに低下する。EU純厚生は年29.1百万USD増加し、CBAM型措置は製品別かつ食料安全保障リスクを考慮すべきと結論づける。

English

This paper uses a calibrated Stackelberg model to assess ex ante economic and environmental effects of extending carbon border adjustment to processed agri-food imports from Türkiye to the EU. The EU sets product-specific carbon charges while Türkiye adjusts export quantities. Optimal charges are highest for lamb and beef (45 and 42 USD/tCO2e), falling to 27.8 USD/tCO2e for lamb under food-security constraints. Net EU welfare rises by USD 29.1 million/year, suggesting CBAM-type measures should be product-specific and account for food-security risks.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

EUのCBAM拡張議論は日本の輸出産業にも波及しうる。農産食品分野への適用可能性と食料安全保障との両立は、日本の通商・農業政策や企業の輸出戦略を考える上で示唆に富む。

In the global GX context

As the EU debates extending CBAM beyond its current scope, this analysis of agri-food carbon charges and food-security trade-offs informs global discussions on CBAM design, WTO compatibility, and the balance between climate ambition and food security in trade policy.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:CBAMの適用範囲拡大を理論的に評価する枠組みと、食料安全保障制約を組み込む方法論を提供する。

🏢実務担当者:EU向け農産食品輸出企業は、将来の炭素課金が製品別に設定されうることを踏まえ、サプライチェーンの炭素集約度把握と価格転嫁戦略の準備が求められる。

🏛政策担当者:CBAM型措置を農産食品に拡張する際は、製品別設計と食料安全保障への配慮が不可欠であることを示唆する。

📄 Abstract（原文）

This paper develops a stylized theoretical policy experiment to evaluate the ex ante economic and environmental implications of extending carbon border adjustment to processed agri-food imports from Türkiye to the EU. The model is not a direct simulation of the existing CBAM, but rather a Stackelberg framework in which the EU sets product-specific carbon charges and Türkiye adjusts export quantities. We develop a calibrated Stackelberg framework in which the EU acts as the regulatory leader setting product-specific carbon border charges, while Türkiye adjusts export quantities as the follower. The model integrates consumer surplus, producer surplus, carbon-charge revenue, environmental benefits, and a food-security penalty linked to minimum consumption requirements. Results reveal substantial heterogeneity across products. In the unconstrained benchmark, lamb and beef face the highest optimal charges, at 45 and 42 USD/tCO2e, respectively. Incorporating food-security constraints reduces the charge for lamb to 27.8 USD/tCO2e, while the charge for beef remains unchanged because the minimum consumption constraint is non-binding. Under the baseline food-security scenario, net EU welfare increases by 29.1 million USD/year. The findings suggest that CBAM-type measures in agri-food trade should be product-specific and should account for food-security risks in nutritionally essential products.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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