気候政策の施肥：CBAMがEU農業排出と地域格差に与える二重の影響

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative assessment of CBAM's cascading effects on agriculture using linked economic models, valuable for carbon pricing impact research.

🏢実務担当者:Demonstrates expected fertilizer price hikes and demand shifts, useful for agricultural sector adaptation planning and cost management.

🏛政策担当者:Shows that border adjustment can reduce emissions without increasing global leakage, but regional income losses require compensatory policies.

炭素国境調整メカニズム（CBAM）は、2026年に完全運用開始が予定されており、無償排出枠を置き換え、非EU地域への炭素漏出を防ぐことで、EU排出量取引制度（ETS）を補完するよう設計されている。CBAMは当初、鉱物性窒素（N）肥料生産を含むエネルギー集約型部門を対象としている。鉱物性N肥料生産はすでにEU ETSに含まれているものの、現在は無償枠による完全補償により炭素賦課金が免除されている。これらの無償枠の段階的廃止とCBAMの導入により、輸入肥料と国内生産肥料の両方の価格が上昇し、間接的にEU農業部門に影響を及ぼすと予想される。本研究は、Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool（MAGNET）とCommon Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact（CAPRI）モデルを用いて、予想される肥料価格変動がEU農業部門および関連する環境成果に与える影響を定量的に評価する。結果は、無償枠の段階的廃止とCBAMの実施の複合効果により、鉱物性N肥料価格が2倍になることを示している。価格上昇により需要が減少し、国内生産は21.4%減少し、輸入は37%減少すると予測される。EU全体の鉱物性N肥料使用量は22%減少し、一部は堆肥に置き換わると予想される。その結果、EUの農業要素所得は7.7%減少すると予測され、主に高投入地域に影響を及ぼす。一方、非EUの農業所得は輸出増加により0.05%わずかに上昇すると予測される。EUの農業温室効果ガス排出量は二酸化炭素換算で22メガトン減少すると予想され、世界全体では有意な増加はない。

AI 翻訳（deepseek-v4-flash）。 正確を期す場合は下の原文を参照してください。

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), scheduled to become fully operational in 2026, is designed to complement the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) by replacing free emission allowances and preventing carbon leakage to non‐EU regions. CBAM initially covers energy‐intensive sectors, including mineral nitrogen (N) fertiliser production. Although mineral N fertiliser production is already included in the EU ETS, it is currently exempt from carbon charges owing to full compensation through free allowances. The phase‐out of these allowances and the introduction of CBAM are expected to increase the prices of both imported and domestically produced fertilisers, indirectly affecting the EU agricultural sector. This study quantitatively assesses the impacts of the expected fertiliser price changes on the EU agricultural sector and related environmental outcomes using the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) and the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) model. The results indicate that the combined effect of phasing out free allowances and implementing CBAM will double mineral N fertiliser prices. Higher prices are projected to reduce demand, leading to a 21.4% decline in domestic production and a 37% reduction in imports. Overall mineral N fertiliser use in the EU is expected to decrease by 22%, partially replaced by manure. Consequently, EU agricultural factor income is projected to fall by 7.7%, primarily affecting high‐input regions. Meanwhile, non‐EU agricultural income is projected to rise slightly by 0.05%, driven by higher exports. EU agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decrease by 22 megatons of CO 2 ‐equivalent, with no significant increase globally.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70060first seen 2026-06-09 04:45:51 · last seen 2026-09-21 04:57:21
• scopus https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105041043165first seen 2026-06-14 05:04:46 · last seen 2026-09-22 05:33:39
• openalex https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70060first seen 2026-06-25 04:32:49