貿易開放と環境クズネッツ曲線の動学的環境影響：SAARC諸国のARDL・誤差修正モデルによる実証
Dynamic environmental consequences of trade openness and environmental Kuznet curve: an empirical evidence from selected SAARC countries using autoregressive distributed lag and error correction modelling (原題)
G. Abbasi
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
バングラデシュ・インド・パキスタンの1986〜2022年データを用い、貿易開放と環境質の関係をARDL・誤差修正モデルで分析。3カ国すべてで環境クズネッツ曲線が成立。バングラデシュは構成・技術効果が優位で汚染ハロー、パキスタンは規模効果優位で汚染ヘイブン、インドは貿易で悪化するもFDIで改善する混合的結果を示した。
English
Using ARDL bounds testing and error-correction models for Bangladesh, India and Pakistan (1986–2022), the study confirms the Environmental Kuznets Curve in all three economies. Bangladesh shows dominant composition/technical effects (pollution halo), Pakistan shows scale effects (pollution haven), while India shows mixed results where trade raises but FDI lowers emissions. It underscores how trade liberalization's environmental outcome hinges on which effect dominates.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業のサプライチェーンが南アジアへ拡大する中、貿易開放が排出量に与える影響はScope 3・調達先リスク評価の背景情報となる。ただし開示制度や炭素会計の直接的示唆は乏しい。
In the global GX context
Adds empirical evidence to the trade-and-emissions debate relevant to CBAM-style border carbon policy and supply-chain emissions accounting, showing that trade's climate impact is country-specific and contingent on composition/technical effects versus scale effects.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:貿易開放と排出の因果経路を規模・構成・技術効果に分解する実証枠組みの参照例となる。
🏢実務担当者:南アジア調達先の排出リスク評価やScope 3サプライヤー選定の背景理解に資する。
🏛政策担当者:貿易自由化と環境政策の整合、グリーン貿易・技術移転促進の政策設計に示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In the recent decades, world trade has increased manifold. However, along with trade openness, greenhouse gas emission, which mainly (73%) consists of carbon dioxide, has also increased many times during this period affecting the quality of environment. Does trade openness cause environmental degradation? It is an important question in attaining the environmental sustainability goals. The present study investigated the relationship between trade openness and quality of environment for three SAARC countries Bagladesh, India and Pakistan for the period 1986 to 2022. We employed the dynamic auto regressive distributed-lag bounds test approach with error correction model to analyze the short as well as long-term environmental consequences of trade openness. Our first objective is to check the existence of Environmental Kuznet’s Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the three SAARC economies. Second, to check which effect is dominant from the scale, composition and technical effects of trade liberalization in theses SAARC economies. Third, to verify the presence of Pollution Haven or Pollution Halo hypotheses for the three economies. The outcome indicated that the proposition regarding Environmental Kuznets’ Curve hypothesis is present in all three economies. In case of Bangladesh, the dominant composition and technical effects of trade contributes positively in improving the environment by reducing carbon emissions. While for Pakistan, scale effect dominates over composition and technical effects as carbon dioxide emissions have increased with trade openness and foreign direct investment in short run as well as in long run. Whereas, in case of India, carbon dioxide emission has increased with trade openness while it is lowered with foreign direct investment, hence scale effect degrades its environment but dominant composition and technical effect later contributes positively to improve environmental quality. Pollution Halo hypothesis is validated for Bangladesh as quality of environment improves with trade liberalization. While in case of Pakistan, Pollution Haven hypothesis exists as openness of trade deteriorates the environmental quality. Whereas, in case of India, trade deteriorates environment while it is improved with capital formation and foreign direct investment, hence, Pollution Halo hypothesis is validated with the suggested conversion to green trade and innovation for the Indian economy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
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