Modeling Climate Impacts on Agroforestry-Based Coffee Production of Smallholder Farmers in Mexico
メキシコの小規模農家によるアグロフォレストリーに基づくコーヒー生産への気候影響のモデリング (AI 翻訳)
Nikolay Khabarov, Christian Folberth, Soeren Lindner, Rastislav Skalský, Charlotte E. González-Abraham, Valeria Javalera-Rincon
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、メキシコの小規模農家が営む日陰アラビカコーヒー生産（アグロフォレストリー）の現在の収量を分析し、将来の収量を推定した。プロセスベースモデルCAF2014を地理空間対応に改良し、代表的な管理方法をモデル化。CMIP6のSSP5-8.5シナリオを用いた予測では、今世紀末に現在比約30%の収量減少が示された。経済分析では、農家組合と有機認証による価格プレミアムが経済的持続可能性に重要であることが強調された。
English
This study analyzes current and future yields of shaded Arabica coffee in agroforestry systems managed by smallholders in Mexico. Using the adapted process-based model CAF2014-Rhaobi, they simulate representative management practices. Under CMIP6 SSP5-8.5, yields are projected to drop about 30% by end of century. Economic analysis highlights the importance of farmer associations and organic price premiums for economic sustainability.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
メキシコの小規模農家の事例だが、気候変動適応策としてのアグロフォレストリーの知見は日本の農業や森林管理にも示唆を与える。ただし、日本のGX政策（SSBJ等）との直接的な関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
This paper provides empirical evidence on climate adaptation in coffee agroforestry, relevant to global discussions on nature-based solutions and sustainable agriculture. While not directly addressing disclosure or transition finance, it offers insights into the economic viability of climate-resilient farming.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Process-based crop modeling approach for agroforestry systems; valuable for climate impact studies.
🏛政策担当者:Need for policies supporting farmer associations and certification premiums to sustain climate adaptation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Shaded Arabica coffee production in agroforestry systems, as opposed to full-sun production, is a nature-based solution improving soil water balance, reducing heat exposure of coffee plants, and supporting sustainable forest management as opposed to deforestation. For this coffee production system in Mexico, which is dominated by smallholders as the largest group of coffee producers, we herein analyze current and estimate future yields. For the first time, to our best knowledge, this is done with a process-based coffee agroforestry model CAF2014 that we adapted for geo-spatial applications and named CAF2014-Rhaobi. Modeling of smallholders’ representative management is based on tree thinning, pruning frequency, and nitrogen supply through fertilizer and litter from nitrogen-fixing shade trees. Modeled historical yields generally agree with the reported numbers; however, there are discrepancies explained by modeling assumptions and simplifications. While shade trees help sustain coffee production, the projected drop in yields under present management is about 30% at the end of the century compared to the present as estimated using an ensemble of CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 climate projections. Economic analysis for three typologies of Mexican small coffee producers (conventional low, high-efficiency, and organic) reveals the major role of farmer associations and organic coffee price premiums in making production economically sustainable. This emphasizes the need for innovative marketing approaches and policies supporting farmers opting for certified production.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136544first seen 2026-07-20 04:46:20
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