ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTION TRIGGERED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS RESPONSE STRATEGY: A SIMULATION ASSESSMENT BASED ON NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTING AND QUANTITATIVE ECOLOGICAL MODELING
X.-B. Huang, P. Han
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
気候変動による生態系の機能冗長性の低下が、生態系サービス供給と長期経済レジリエンスに与える非線形影響を、マクロ経済モデルと空間生態モデル（EABM-InVEST）の結合で定量化した研究。50年間のモンテカルロ・シミュレーションにより、従来型成長経路では2060年頃に不可逆的な閾値を超え自然資本評価が急落する一方、自然資本会計（NCA）とNbS・動的な空間柔軟性を組み合わせれば生態的連結性を維持し正の内部収益が得られると示す。
English
This study couples a macroeconomic model with spatial ecological modeling (EABM-InVEST) to quantify how declining ecosystem functional redundancy affects ecosystem services and long-term economic resilience. A 50-year Monte Carlo global simulation finds that under conventional growth paths, physical climate risk pushes ecological redundancy past an irreversible threshold around 2060, sharply eroding natural capital value, whereas integrating natural capital accounting (NCA) with nature-based solutions and dynamic spatial flexibility preserves connectivity and yields positive internal eco-economic returns.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
自然資本会計と生物多様性の定量評価は、SSBJ・TNFD対応や有報での自然資本開示を進める日本企業にとって参考になる枠組みを提供する。ただし全球の様式化シミュレーションであり、日本固有の政策・企業データへの直接の示唆は限定的。
In the global GX context
Natural capital accounting and biodiversity metrics are increasingly relevant to TNFD/ISSB-aligned disclosure and to quantifying physical nature-related risk in transition planning. The paper's stylized global simulation offers a conceptual bridge between NCA systems and macroeconomic resilience, though it is not empirically calibrated to specific jurisdictions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a coupled macro-ecological modeling template linking functional redundancy, NCA, and economic resilience that can be adapted or critiqued methodologically.
🏢実務担当者:Offers a conceptual case for embedding natural capital accounting and NbS into long-horizon risk and resilience planning, though not a ready-to-use disclosure tool.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that rigid protection boundaries may be insufficient and that dynamic spatial flexibility plus NCA integration could improve long-term climate-adaptive resource management.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change-driven environmental variation is profoundly reshaping ecosystem structure and function, triggering a dual crisis of biological community redistribution and natural capital degradation. Traditional environmental-economic models often underestimate the non-substitutable role of ecological assets in macroeconomic production. This paper adopts an interdisciplinary perspective from applied ecology and ecological economics and develops an “evolutionary multi-agent-ecological assessment” coupling model (EABM-InVEST) that integrates the macroeconomic system and spatial ecological evolution. The study quantifies the nonlinear impact of the attenuation of “functional redundancy” of ecosystems on the supply of ecosystem services and long-term economic resilience through biometric and quantitative ecological methods. The 50-year Monte Carlo stylized global simulation suggests that under the conventional path of maintaining traditional growth and rigid protection boundaries, climate physical risks will cause the ecological functional redundancy to cross an irreversible threshold around 2060, thereby triggering a sharp decline in the valuation of natural capital; conversely, by deeply integrating the natural capital accounting (NCA) system and adopting a comprehensive strategy of nature-based solutions (NbS) with dynamic spatial flexibility, the ecological connectivity required for species migration can be effectively maintained, and a positive internal eco-economic return can be achieved. This exploratory research provides quantitative decision support for global multidisciplinary natural resource management, biodiversity conservation planning, and climate-adaptive social construction.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/2405_1058710600first seen 2026-10-28 05:40:08 · last seen 2026-11-06 05:43:40
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