インドネシアにおける環境リスク・自然災害と経済成長管理：衛星データに基づく分析
Environmental risk, natural disasters, and economic growth management in Indonesia: A satellite-based analysis (原題)
Devi Anggrayni, W. Widodo, Hastarini Dwi Atmanti
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシアを対象に、洪水曝露・森林減少・夜間光の衛星指標と1960〜2024年のマクロ時系列を統合し、環境リスクが経済成長に与える短期・長期の影響を動学的時系列枠組みで分析した研究。森林減少は長期的に成長と有意に関連する一方、災害指標は集計レベルで頑健な長期的負の効果を示さず、復興需要や経済多様化による適応が影響を緩和している可能性を示唆する。環境リスクを投資安定性への構造的制約として再定義する管理志向の枠組みを提示する。
English
Integrating satellite indicators of flood exposure, forest loss and night-time lights with Indonesian macro data (1960–2024), this study uses a dynamic time-series framework to test short- and long-run links between environmental risk and growth. Forest loss shows a significant long-run association with growth, while disaster indicators show no robust aggregate long-run negative effect, suggesting adaptation via reconstruction and diversification. It reframes environmental risk as a structural constraint on investment stability in emerging economies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業の新興国サプライチェーン・投資先評価において、災害・森林リスクを長期マクロ指標として扱う視点を提供する。SSBJや有報の気候関連開示で求められる物理的リスク評価の参考になるが、開示制度への直接の含意は限定的。
In the global GX context
Speaks to the physical-risk and adaptation side of TCFD/ISSB disclosure, offering a satellite-data approach to country-level environmental risk that could inform scenario analysis and sovereign/emerging-market exposure assessment, though it does not engage disclosure frameworks directly.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:衛星指標をマクロ時系列に統合する実証設計と、災害リスクの集計レベル効果の非頑健性という知見が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:新興国拠点・調達先の物理的リスクを長期視点で評価する際の補助的エビデンスとして使える。
🏛政策担当者:災害復興需要が成長を緩和しうる点は、適応政策・投資安定化策の設計に示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study examines how environmental risk and natural disasters affect economic performance in a disaster-prone emerging economy. It focuses on the short-run and long-run impacts of flood exposure, forest loss, and spatial economic expansion on Indonesia’s economic growth, with implications for investment stability and growth management. The study integrates satellite-based indicators of flood exposure, forest loss, and night-time light intensity with national time-series macroeconomic data for Indonesia over the period 1960–2024. These variables are analyzed using a dynamic time-series framework to capture both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium relationships between environmental risk and economic performance. The results show that environmental factors affect economic performance in differentiated ways. Forest loss exhibits a statistically significant long-run association with economic growth, reflecting the continued role of land conversion and resource utilization in Indonesia’s development process. In contrast, disaster-related indicators do not display robust long-run negative effects at the aggregate level, suggesting that adaptive mechanisms such as reconstruction activity and economic diversification mitigate their macroeconomic impact. Short-run effects of environmental variables are generally limited. This study contributes to the business and management literature by reframing environmental risk as a structural constraint on economic performance and investment stability. By integrating satellite-based environmental data into macroeconomic analysis, it provides a novel, management-oriented framework for assessing disaster-related economic risk in emerging economies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar http://journal2.uad.ac.id/index.php/optimum/article/download/15927/6954first seen 2026-10-28 05:37:46 · last seen 2026-11-05 06:09:01
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