エネルギー転換における技術成長の理解・測定・予測

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:普及データから段階転換を直接検出する手法と学習率の非一定性の実証は、エネルギー転換モデリング研究の前提を問い直す材料になる。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達や長期脱炭素計画の際、普及は直線的に加速しないという現実的成長前提を置く根拠として使える。

🏛政策担当者:COP28の再エネ3倍目標の達成には主要国で1.4〜5倍の加速が必要で、段階に応じた政策支援の再設計が求められる点を政策立案に反映すべき。

Meeting climate targets depends on how fast low-carbon technologies replace fossil fuels. Wind and solar power are now among the cheapest sources of new electricity, which many take to mean their growth will be rapid, seamless and uniform. Techno-economic models, in which deployment is largely cost-driven, project much the same. But how does growth actually unfold, and how far ahead can it be anticipated?This thesis shows that growth instead proceeds in four phases – formative, accelerating, steady, and slowdown – each shaped by drivers and barriers that shift as technology and policy co-evolve. It develops tools that analyse growth as it unfolds, without imposing a fixed shape or destination, and locate shifts between phases directly in deployment data. The findings contradict three common assumptions. Growth does not follow a simple S-curve: for wind and solar, initial acceleration typically ends at around 3% of a country's electricity generation, far earlier than an S-curve's midpoint implies, giving way to prolonged steady growth punctuated by stalls and re-accelerations. Learning rates are not constant: across 145 cost series, the cost decline per doubling of deployment steepens as technologies mature, yet annual cost reductions slow, because each doubling takes longer. And technologies do not spread evenly: across more than 90 technologies in over 200 countries, later adopters pass through the phases in less time but deploy more slowly and saturate lower, consistent with a weaker capacity to absorb new technologies.A hindcast-validated probabilistic model, PROLONG, projects a baseline for what is likely given the growth observed across countries, rather than what is cost-optimal or required by a target. Its central projections for wind and solar grow much like the IPCC's 2 °C-compatible pathways, and faster than current policy scenarios. The COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030 sits near its 95th percentile, and would require major economies to accelerate wind and solar growth by 1.4 to 5 times. Together these findings replace a smooth, cost-driven picture with a phase-based one, in which barriers change from phase to phase rather than fading as technologies become cheap, and the support that sustains growth evolves with them.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.63959/chalmers.dt/5943first seen 2026-10-24 04:40:10 · last seen 2026-11-05 04:51:48