グリーン国家デリスキングの経済的コスト：ドイツのエネルギー転換からの証拠
The economic costs of green state derisking: evidence from Germany’s energy transition (原題)
Patrick Kaczmarczyk, Tom Krebs
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
「グリーン国家デリスキング」（公的保証＋民間資本）がインフラ資本の事実上の民営化をもたらすと指摘し、その経済的コストを評価。ドイツの送電網拡張（2037年までにGDP比約10%の追加投資）を事例に、民間資本案と公的資本案を比較。民間資本案では電力価格が顕著に上昇し、2037年までに累積で最大GDP比5%の生産損失が生じる。独の送電網の民間投資家は低リスクで二桁リターンを得てきた実証的証拠も示し、脱炭素化成功にはインフラ資本の公的所有が必要と結論づける。
English
Assesses the economic costs of 'green state derisking' — public guarantees plus private equity financing of infrastructure — arguing it amounts to de facto privatisation of infrastructure capital. Using Germany's grid expansion (additional investment of ~10% of GDP by 2037), it compares private-equity and public-equity financing: the derisking route yields markedly higher electricity prices and cumulative output losses up to 5% of GDP by 2037. Empirical evidence shows German grid private-equity investors earned double-digit returns with minimal risk. The authors conclude a successful green transition requires public ownership of infrastructure capital, and trace how market fundamentalism has blocked a more efficient macro-financial regime.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも送電網・GX推進機構による脱炭素インフラ投資の官民分担が議論される中、公的保証によるリスク移転が電力価格や産業競争力に与えるコストを示す点は、GX経済移行債や成長志向型カーボンプライシングの設計を考える上で示唆に富む。
In the global GX context
Speaks directly to the global debate on blended finance and de-risking instruments (guarantees, MDB-style structures) promoted under the Wall Street Consensus and transition finance agendas. It offers a rare quantified counter-case showing that public guarantees can raise consumer prices and output losses, relevant to ISSB-era investors assessing sovereign and utility transition risk.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a quantified macro-financial framework for comparing public vs private infrastructure financing in decarbonization, with rent-extraction evidence.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for utilities and infrastructure investors weighing the political and cost risks of guarantee-backed private financing structures.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights that de-risking design choices materially affect electricity prices and GDP, arguing for public ownership options in grid investment.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The concept of green state derisking (Wall Street Consensus) has become a cornerstone of contemporary climate governance. In practice, this macro-financial regime typically combines public guarantees with private equity to finance large-scale infrastructure investment, amounting to a de facto privatisation of infrastructure capital. This paper assesses the economic costs of green state derisking and shows that it generates substantial income and output losses. Focusing on Germany’s electricity grid expansion – which requires cumulative additional investment of approximately 10 per cent of GDP by 2037 – we compare private-equity financing with a public-equity alternative. We find that the private-equity option (green state derisking) leads to markedly higher electricity prices and to cumulative production losses of up to 5 per cent of GDP by 2037. We further provide empirical evidence that private equity investors in the German electricity grid have extracted significant economic rents in the past, reaping double-digit returns while bearing minimal risk. Once the political repercussions of rising energy costs are incorporated into the analysis, our results suggest that a successful green transformation requires public ownership of infrastructure capital. Finally, we detail how entrenched forms of market fundamentalism have obstructed the political pathway towards a more efficient macro-financial regime in Germany.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2026.2738818first seen 2026-11-01 04:43:14 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:36:18
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