気候政策の不確実性下における再生可能電力への投資、2010年
Investment in Renewable Electricity under Climate Policy Uncertainty, 2010. (原題)
Stein‐Erik Fleten
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ノルウェーの小水力・陸上風力の生産ライセンスデータを用い、リアルオプション理論が気候政策の不確実性に対する投資家行動を予測できるか検証した研究。政策不確実性が投資の遅延を促すことを定量的モデルと投資家調査で確認し、理論の拡張と政策手段設計の含意を示す。
English
Using Norwegian small-hydro and onshore wind license data, this study tests whether real option theory predicts investor behavior under climate policy uncertainty. It finds that uncertainty induces investment delay, extends the theory, and suggests policy instrument design to lower investor risk and the social cost of meeting climate targets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では再エネ導入と電源投資の意思決定がFIT/FIP制度や政策変更リスクに左右される。本稿のリアルオプション視点は、国内の再エネ投資判断や政策設計、トランジション期の資金調達議論に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Amid TCFD/ISSB-driven transition planning, this paper links policy uncertainty to real-option investment delay, offering evidence relevant to how disclosure of policy risk shapes capital allocation in renewable power.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:リアルオプション理論の気候政策不確実性への適用と実証的検証に関心がある研究者に有用。
🏢実務担当者:再エネ電源投資のタイミング判断や政策リスク評価に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:政策不確実性を減らす制度設計が投資促進と社会的コスト低減につながる点を考慮すべき。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In the coming years, the world will need more electric power from renewable resources , and Norway is well positioned to contribute with additional renewable electricity capacity. Decisions on whether and when to invest in new capacity will depend on uncertainty with respect to future cash flows generated by renewable electricity projects. One source of uncertainty is climate policy; either with respect to the future climate policy itself or with respect to the impact of existing climate policies on future cash flows. Real option theory can be used to translate climate policy uncertainty into investment risk. A license to build a power plant is a real option, where the investor has the right, but not the obligation, to pay the investment cost to get the cash flow of the project. Faced with a risky irreversible decision, investors will val ue the opportunity to gain additional information about likely future conditions affecting the project. This could mean delaying investment until uncertainty has been partly resolved. In this project the validity of Real option theory is tested in predicting how investors respond to climate policy uncertainty. The starting point is two data sets on production licenses; one on small hydro power projects and one on land-based windmill projects. Whether actual investment behavior is consistent with the predictions by Real option models was tested via quantitative models. These studies were complemented with surveys and interviews with investors, and dialog with a stakeholder reference group. Based on research results the project presents extensions of Real option theory as well as suggest how a careful design of new policy instruments may reduce investors risk and thus the social cost of achieving climate policy targets.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.18712/nsd-nsd2066-v4first seen 2026-09-27 04:36:02
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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。