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Don't punish the pioneers: Winning the automotive innovation race requires credible political commitment. EMPOCI policy briefing, Issue 2, May 2026

先駆者を罰するな：自動車イノベーション競争に勝つためには信頼できる政治的コミットメントが必要。EMPOCI政策ブリーフィング、第2号、2026年5月 (AI 翻訳)

Rogge, Karoline S., Luetkehaus, Hauke, Mahendiran, Shreekanth, Song, Qi, Ayala Villalobos, Pablo, Goedeking, Nicholas, Hoppmann, Joern

Zenodoプレプリント2026-05-05#政策Origin: EU
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20030452
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/20030452
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本政策ブリーフは、2023年のEUによる2035年までのガソリン・ディーゼル車新車販売禁止の目標が、ドイツ自動車産業の変革を促進したが、現在その弱体化が議論されていることを指摘する。ドイツ自動車産業の経営者調査から、規制の弱体化はすでにEVに投資した革新企業を罰することになると警告し、強力な需要促進策の必要性を強調している。

English

This policy brief examines the EU's 2035 phase-out of ICE vehicles and current debates to relax it. Survey insights from German automotive managers show that weakening the policy would penalize innovative firms that invested in e-mobility. It argues that maintaining credible CO2 standards and boosting EV demand are crucial for global competitiveness.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の自動車産業もEV/HEV戦略の岐路に立つ。EUの政策信頼性の事例は、日本のGHG削減目標や電動化政策の設計・維持に示唆を与える。特に、日本の2035年電動車目標の整合性や投資家シグナルとしての重要性を考える上で参考となる。

In the global GX context

This brief offers timely evidence on how policy credibility affects corporate innovation in the automotive sector. As global regulators (e.g., EU, US, Japan) design phase-out targets, the German case highlights risks of backtracking. Relevant for ISSB/TCFD discussions on transition planning and policy scenario consistency.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides survey-based evidence on the link between policy credibility and firm-level innovation in automotive transition.

🏢実務担当者:Automotive firms can use insights to advocate for stable policy frameworks that protect early movers in e-mobility.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should consider the negative impact of policy dilution on industry competitiveness and innovation leadership.

📄 Abstract（原文）

The European Union in 2023 committed to phasing out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2035, but is currently debating to relax this phase-out policy. New survey insights with managers in the German automotive industry suggest that watering down the phase-out policy would penalize highly innovative companies – both SMEs and large firms – that have already heavily invested in the orientation of their automotive business activities towards e-mobility. Weakening the phase-out policy would in effect punish precisely the firms that are best positioned to compete in the global innovation race towards net-zero technologies. These fast transformers prefer the maintenance of the so-called sales ban for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035 and support the EU’s CO 2 emission performance standards. In addition, they see the introduction of stronger policies supporting demand for electric vehicles as key for successfully transforming the automotive industry, for instance through EU targets for clean corporate fleets. This policy brief showcases that Germany’s automotive industry is at a crossroads, and offers policy implications for navigating its split industry into a competitive future.   Key Messages:   1. The EU phase-out policies have been effective. The European CO 2 emission performance standards – culminating in the ICE sales ban by 2035 – are the key policy driver for the transformation of the German automotive industry. 2. Policy mix credibility is essential for a successful transformation. Perceptions of weakening political commitments towards e-mobility make phase-out policies less effective. 3. Germany’s automotive industry is divided, expressing competing policy preferences. Fast transformers want to maintain the CO 2 emission performance standards towards zero by 2035, while slow transformers prefer to end it. 4. Sustained policy ambition is critical for safeguarding innovation leadership. Securing competitiveness in future markets requires an ambitious policy mix that sustains and scales up the emerging momentum – otherwise Germany risks failing to attain a leading position in the global innovation race towards e-mobility.

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