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インドネシアにおける持続可能な金融とグリーンジョブ強化へのシステム思考の適用:2060年ネットゼロ排出に向けたステークホルダーへの課題と便益

Understanding Systems Thinking in Strengthening Sustainable Finance and Green Jobs in Indonesia: Challenges and Benefits for Stakeholders Toward Net Zero Emission 2060 (原題)

Leonard Tiopan Panjaitan

Crossrefプレプリント2026-01-01#気候金融経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: finance
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.7278198
原典: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7278198

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

インドネシアのNZE2060達成に向け、持続可能な金融規制・グリーンジョブの能力ギャップ・銀行の気候リスクをシステム思考で統合分析した研究。216のKKNI認定グリーンジョブの大半がレベル5-6かつ横断的分野に集中する一方、銀行リスク管理のSKKNIはNGFS気候シナリオと明示的に連携していないことを示す。CI-LCRシミュレーションでは大手2行が複合気候流動性ストレス下で規制基準100%を下回る可能性を指摘。規制・人材・リスク管理を結ぶシステム的アプローチの必要性を結論づける。

English

This study applies systems thinking to integrate Indonesia's sustainable-finance regulation, green-jobs competency gaps, and banking climate risk toward NZE 2060. Of 216 KKNI-certified green occupations, most cluster at levels 5-6 and cross-sectoral categories, while the banking risk SKKNI lacks explicit NGFS climate-scenario linkage. CI-LCR simulations show two Big-Four banks could breach the 100% threshold under compound climate liquidity stress, and climate governance scores average only 2.13/6. The authors conclude that without systemic alignment of regulation, workforce competency, and climate-risk management, NZE 2060 governance risks being complete on paper but operationally fragile.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではSSBJ基準・有報開示・銀行の気候リスク規制(日銀気候ストレステスト)が進む中、新興国での規制・人材・リスク管理の統合的枠組み設計は、日本の金融機関の海外投融資先評価やトランジション・ファイナンス実務に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

As ISSB/TCFD-aligned disclosure and NGFS-based climate stress testing spread globally, this paper offers a rare integrated view linking sustainable-finance regulation, green-skills standards, and banking liquidity resilience in an emerging market—relevant to transition-finance and climate-risk disclosure scholarship beyond advanced economies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:システム思考(CLD・レバレッジポイント)を気候金融・人材政策の統合分析に適用する手法例として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:新興国拠点の銀行・企業が気候流動性リスクとグリーンジョブ人材基準を規制対応にどう組み込むかの示唆を得られる。

🏛政策担当者:規制・職業能力基準・気候シナリオを相互接続させる枠組み設計の必要性を示す政策材料となる。

📄 Abstract(原文)

Indonesia faces a complex, interconnected, and multi-scale challenge in achieving its Net Zero Emission (NZE) target by 2060: an evolving sustainable-finance regulatory framework, persistent green-workforce competency gaps, and climate-risk exposures that threaten banking liquidity resilience. Previous studies tend to examine these three issues separately, creating a risk that resulting policy interventions will be partial and overlook feedback effects among subsystems. This study aims to apply a systems-thinking framework to understand, in an integrated manner, how strengthening sustainable finance and green jobs mutually reinforce (or constrain) Indonesia's progress toward NZE 2060, and to identify concrete challenges and benefits for stakeholders. The research uses a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach, synthesizing secondary data from regulatory documents, banking prudential databases, occupational maps, and climate facts and figures, analyzed using systemsthinking tools consisting of the Iceberg Model, Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), and Meadows' leveragepoint analysis. The results show that, of the 216 nationally identified KKNI-certified green-job occupations, the majority are concentrated at KKNI levels 5-6 (54.6% of the total) and in cross-sectoral categories (44.4% of the total), while the Indonesian National Work Competency Standard (SKKNI) for Banking Risk Management (Minister of Manpower Decree No. 271/2024) contains only 21 competency units with no explicit linkage to NGFS climate scenarios. Climate-Integrated Liquidity Coverage Ratio (CI-LCR) simulations for the four Big-Four banks show that Bank Mandiri and BRI could breach the 100% regulatory threshold under the Compound Climate Liquidity Stress scenario (falling to 94.00% and 92.50%, respectively). At the same time, evaluation of banking climate governance still shows vulnerabilities, with an average score of only 2.13 on a scale of 6. CLD analysis identifies the highest-leverage points in aligning SKKNI/KKNI competency standards with OJK's CRMS framework and integrating the Climate Transition Liquidity Buffer into national liquidity regulation. The study concludes that without a systemic approach explicitly linking sustainable-finance regulation, greenjobs competency development, and banking climate-risk management, Indonesia's pursuit of NZE 2060 risks producing governance structures that appear complete on paper but remain operationally fragile.

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