The role of green financial support and energy intensity in advancing renewable energy transition: evidence from China’s agricultural sector

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🔬研究者:Provides a novel econometric framework for analyzing renewable energy transition in agriculture, with implications for green finance and energy intensity policies.

🏢実務担当者:Offers evidence that combining green credit expansion with energy efficiency mandates is more effective than either alone for agricultural renewable adoption.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for integrated policies targeting both green finance and energy efficiency to accelerate renewable energy transition in the agricultural sector.

Agriculture’s long-lasting dependence on fossil-fuel-intensive inputs and its limited access to capital markets make it one of the most structurally constrained yet least studied sectors in the context of renewable energy transitions. We examine, for the first time within a multi-model time-series framework, how green financial support (GFS) and energy intensity (EI) jointly shape the renewable energy transition (RET) in China’s agricultural sector. In this context, the mechanisms and policy stakes differ substantially from those in industrial or urban settings. Grounded in Green Finance Theory and the Multi-Level Perspective on energy transitions, the study tests three directional hypotheses: GFS positively drives RET, EI negatively impedes RET, and GFS reduces EI over time. Using annual data from 2000 to 2022 sourced from the World Development Indicators, OECD databases, and China’s National Bureau of Statistics, we employ Johansen cointegration testing alongside vector autoregression (VAR), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) to capture both short- and long-run dynamics. Both DOLS ( β  = −0.061, p  < 0.001) and FMOLS ( β  = −0.040, p  < 0.001) confirm a significant long-run association between GFS and RET; the negative coefficient reflects structural limitations of the private investment proxy rather than an adverse effect of green finance. EI consistently impedes renewable adoption across short- and long-run horizons (VAR: β  = −19.74, p  < 0.01; DOLS: β  = −10.52, p  < 0.001). Impulse response analysis further confirms that GFS shocks produce lasting positive effects on RET. In contrast, EI shocks suppress renewable adoption across the full 20-year forecast horizon, with RET self-explaining 62.1% of its variance by year 20. These findings support all three hypotheses and carry direct implications for agricultural energy policy, specifically that combining targeted green credit expansion with energy efficiency mandates offers a more durable pathway to renewable transition than either instrument alone.

• semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2026.1784256first seen 2026-07-26 06:13:38