ポーランドのエネルギー転換における速度とレジリエンス
Speed versus resilience in Poland’s energy transition (原題)
Mariusz Baranowski
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、ポーランドの電力部門脱炭素化の複雑さを分析し、2040年までの発電構成の予測を評価する。石炭の割合が2015年の87%から2040年には9%に低下し、再生可能エネルギーが53%に拡大する一方、ガス火力の3倍増による炭素ロックインのリスクや、2030年以降の原子力依存の課題を指摘する。移行ガバナンスには、グリッドの回復力、エネルギー貯蔵、空間的正義の確保が重要と論じる。
English
This paper analyzes the complexity of Poland's power sector decarbonization, evaluating projected generation mix to 2040. It finds coal's share declining from 87% in 2015 to 9% in 2040, with renewables expanding to 53%, but warns of carbon lock-in from tripled gas generation and risks of nuclear megaproject execution. It emphasizes coupling accelerated decarbonization with grid resilience, storage, and spatial justice for a stable transition.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のエネルギー転換（石炭依存からの移行、再生可能エネルギー拡大、原子力の位置づけ）と比較する上で示唆に富む。特に、脱炭素化の速度と電力系統の安定性・レジリエンスの両立という課題は、日本の電力政策にも共通する論点を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global energy transition scholarship by examining the trade-offs between decarbonization speed and socio-technical resilience in a coal-dependent economy. It offers lessons for other regions facing similar transitions, highlighting risks of gas lock-in and nuclear megaproject delays, and underscores the need for grid investments and storage.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a nuanced analysis of transition dynamics in a coal-dependent country, useful for comparative energy policy research.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights risks of gas lock-in and the importance of grid resilience and storage for corporate energy planning.
🏛政策担当者:Offers insights on balancing decarbonization speed with system resilience, relevant for energy transition governance.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The Polish energy transition represents one of the most complex cases of power sector decarbonisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Moving away from a socio-technical regime historically entrenched in hard coal and lignite towards a diversified low-carbon energy mix raises fundamental questions regarding temporal dynamics and socio-technical resilience. This article critically evaluates the projected trajectories of electricity generation in Poland up to 2040, drawing on empirical forecasts of gross power production in terawatt-hours, alongside the corresponding shares in the generation mix. The analysis demonstrates that whilst the projected decline in coal’s share from 87% in 2015 to 9% in 2040, combined with the expansion of renewable energy sources to 53%, indicates a profound structural transformation, the pace of decarbonisation remains constrained by regulatory inertia and legacy infrastructure. Simultaneously, the emerging configuration introduces novel vulnerabilities, notably a tripling of gas-fired power generation that risks establishing a new form of carbon lock-in, and an ambitious reliance on nuclear power after 2030 that carries significant risks of megaproject execution. The article outlines key implications for transition governance, emphasising that accelerating decarbonisation must be coupled with grid resilience, energy storage expansion, and spatial justice to achieve a stable and equitable energy transition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.14746/pk.2026.8.1.2first seen 2026-08-20 04:36:57
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