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CO2排出削減における排出権取引制度（ETS）の有効性：欧州連合、ニュージーランド、韓国からの実証的証拠

Effectiveness of ETS for Reducing CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from European Union, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea (原題)

Govinda R. Timilsina, Ze Song, Gal Hochman

Crossrefプレプリント2026-01-01#炭素価格Origin: Global経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.7168998
原典: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7168998

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、EU、ニュージーランド、韓国の大規模な排出権取引制度（ETS）のCO2削減効果を、一般化合成コントロール法を用いて2005〜2020年のデータで検証した。EU ETSは電力部門で累積21.3%、全体で15.6%の排出削減をもたらしたが、NZ ETSは農業が対象外のため統計的に有意な効果がなく、韓国ETSは段階的に効果を強めた。

English

This study evaluates the effectiveness of three major ETS (EU, NZ, Korea) using a generalized synthetic control method on 2005-2020 data. The EU ETS reduced electricity-sector CO2 by 21.3% and total CO2 by 15.6%, while NZ's ETS had no significant effect due to agricultural exemptions, and Korea's ETS became progressively effective over phases.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では2026年度に排出量取引の本格稼働が予定されており、本研究成果は制度設計（対象セクター、段階的強化）に直接示唆を与える。特に、NZの農業除外の失敗例は、日本の非対象部門の扱いを検討する上で参考になる。

In the global GX context

This paper provides rigorous causal evidence on ETS effectiveness, informing global carbon pricing policy design. The findings on sectoral coverage and phase-in dynamics are relevant for jurisdictions implementing or strengthening ETS, such as the EU's CBAM and emerging carbon markets.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides robust causal estimates of ETS effectiveness using a generalized synthetic control method, useful for carbon pricing research.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how ETS design (sectoral coverage, phase stringency) affects emissions, relevant for corporate compliance and strategy.

🏛政策担当者:Informs ETS design and implementation, highlighting the importance of sectoral coverage and gradual tightening for effectiveness.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Emission trading schemes (ETS) are among the primary pricing instruments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, more than 35 ETS are in operation around the world at multinational, national, and subnational levels. How effective these systems are in reducing emissions is a key empirical question. This study examines the effectiveness of three large-scale emission trading schemes implemented by the European Union, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The study employs a generalized synthetic control method on data from 2005–20. The findings show that the EU emission trading scheme led to a cumulative reduction of 21.3 percent in carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector and 15.6 lower total carbon dioxide emissions, relative to a scenario with no emission trading scheme. In New Zealand, the emission trading scheme had no statistically significant effect on total national carbon dioxide emissions—largely because nearly half of New Zealand’s emissions come from agriculture, a sector not covered by the country’s emission trading scheme. The effectiveness of Korea’s emission trading scheme varied substantially across phases. Although initially it did not halt the rise in emissions, it became a progressively strong driver of decarbonization over time.

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