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概念から徴収へ：EU海運貨物向け炭素価格メカニズムの設計と評価

From concept to collection: designing and evaluating an EU carbon pricing mechanism for maritime freight (原題)

Susanne Julia Gäde

Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-Essenジャーナル2026-09-30#炭素価格Origin: EU経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: transport
DOI: 10.17185/duepublico/87369
原典: https://doi.org/10.17185/duepublico/87369

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

世界全体では規制が進まない海運に対し、EUが単独で導入可能な炭素価格制度を設計・評価した研究。国際航路には貨物ベースの排出税、域内航路には燃料税を課す仕組みを提案し、貿易量・船舶特性・港湾データからボトムアップの排出インベントリを構築するEMINVモデルを開発。ハンブルク港の2017年ケースで検証後、EU海運貿易に適用し、2019年に489MtのCO2排出と、炭素価格次第で年121〜1,821億ユーロの税収を推計した。現行EU ETSより大きく、法的実現性と環境効果を併せ持つ代替案と主張する。

English

This study designs and evaluates a unilateral EU carbon pricing mechanism for maritime freight, combining a cargo-based emissions tax on international voyages with a fuel tax on intra-EU trips. It builds a bottom-up emissions inventory via the EMINV simulation model, validated on a 2017 Port of Hamburg case and applied to EU maritime trade. EU-related freight emitted 489 Mt CO2 in 2019, and the scheme could raise EUR 12.1–182.1 bn annually depending on carbon price—far more than the current EU ETS.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

EU ETSの海運拡大やIMO議論を巡る制度設計は、日本海運・造船・港湾の競争力とカーボンプライシング対応に直結する。邦船社のScope 3・航路別排出把握やSSBJ開示の実務的示唆も大きい。

In the global GX context

Directly informs the global debate on extending carbon pricing to shipping (EU ETS maritime, IMO negotiations) and offers a transparent, evasion-resistant alternative to current schemes. Relevant to CBAM-adjacent trade and freight decarbonization policy.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:海運セクターの炭素価格制度設計とボトムアップ排出インベントリ手法の実証例として有用。

🏢実務担当者:海運利用企業・船社は航路別排出と炭素コストの試算、Scope 3把握の参考にできる。

🏛政策担当者:地域単独の海運MBMの法的実現性と税収ポテンシャルを検討する際の定量的根拠となる。

📄 Abstract（原文）

In order to limit anthropogenic global warming, every sector must considerably reduce its emissions compared to the current level. Maritime shipping, although responsible for approximately 3% of global CO2 emissions, remains largely exempt from carbon pricing regulation at the global level due to jurisdictional and political challenges. This study investigates how the European Union (EU) could unilaterally implement a market-based measure (MBM) to price carbon emissions from maritime freight transport where no global agreement exists, and thus make reaching the latter more likely. Previous literature has often dismissed regional MBMs as unfeasible, citing concerns about legal extraterritoriality, tax avoidance, and competitiveness. Existing models often lack transparency, and current schemes such as the extension of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to shipping are susceptible to evasion. This research proposes a unilateral EU emissions tax combining a cargo-based emissions tax for international shipping and a fuel tax for intra-EU voyages. It presents a methodology for a bottom-up emissions inventory based on trade volumes, ship characteristics, and port data, which is implemented through the EMINV simulation model. A 2017 case study for the Port of Hamburg validates the model, which is then applied to the EU’s maritime trade. Results show that EU-related maritime freight transport emitted 489 Mt of CO2 in 2019, which is consistent with an earlier study. Depending on the carbon price, the proposed mechanism could yield annual revenues between EUR 12.1 and 182.1 bn—significantly more than the current EU ETS. The proposed scheme thus presents a legally viable and environmentally effective alternative with strong fiscal potential.

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