BU235|Quantitative Standing Model for Energy Transition under B_U B_U 体系下能源转型的量化 standing 模型:C_fric、Xi_res、BBC、博弈支付与权重 校准

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Energy transition researchers can adopt the BU235 model as a novel evaluation framework for comparing transition paths, especially the weak-persistent versus aggressive approach.

🏢実務担当者:The model's concepts of friction costs and behavioral resistance could inform corporate transition planning, but the lacking operationalization reduces direct utility.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers may find the distinction between genuine and illusory transitions useful for policy design, though the model needs concrete calibration for national contexts.

BU235 establishes Quantitative Standing Model for Energy Transition under B_U as the quantitative audit layer for energy-system regime switching. Its central purpose is to move energy transition from a policy slogan, moral narrative, or visible decarbonization target into a settlement-auditable transition path. The file focuses on the high-sunk-cost and high-residual shift from fossil-dominant systems to renewable systems, and from centralized generation to distributed energy structures. Its core judgment is that energy transition becomes admissible only when long-term sustainability, security, reliability, affordability, and economic gains remain positive after friction costs, residual ranks, behavioral resistance, and multi-agent game payoffs are fully counted. The file defines the object of evaluation as the transition path π, rather than any single metric such as emissions reduction, renewable penetration, levelized cost, investment volume, or installed capacity. These indicators are useful but incomplete. Under B_U, a transition path must be judged under real infrastructure, political economy, grid constraints, capital constraints, social adaptation limits, and institutional feedback. A path that looks green at the visible layer may still fail standing if it hides stranded assets, grid instability, employment shock, policy lock-in, user resistance, security exposure, or unresolved coordination costs. BU235 extends the p^w audit grammar into the energy domain. It introduces an energy-specific C_fric model, a ranked Xi_res residual field, a BBC behavioral and institutional resistance coefficient, a game-adjusted payoff interface, and a calibrated standing formula. This allows the evaluator to distinguish a genuine weak-persistent transition from a green-transition illusion. A weak-persistent path does not simply maximize renewable speed; it preserves continuity, manages reserve capacity, pays infrastructure costs, stages retirement, absorbs social residuals, and maintains energy standing throughout the transition. The model treats C_fric as the total transition friction: asset retirement, grid reconstruction, storage investment, retraining, policy redesign, coordination overhead, compensation, reserve maintenance, infrastructure financing, and institutional adaptation. Xi_res ranks the unresolved residuals that can amplify during transition: intermittency, transmission bottlenecks, storage insufficiency, stranded assets, employment disruption, supply-chain exposure, policy rigidity, regional inequality, security vulnerability, and market instability. Residual ranking is not a narrative inconvenience; it is a settlement load. A key contribution is the BBC coefficient. BU235 makes explicit that energy systems are used, financed, regulated, and defended by human institutions. Even technically superior energy structures can fail if households reject pricing signals, firms delay investment, regions resist job loss, grid operators lack operational confidence, or policymakers avoid short-term accountability. BBC therefore prevents behavioral and institutional drag from appearing later as unexplained “implementation failure.” The file also formalizes the game-theoretic layer. Energy transition is a multi-agent game involving governments, firms, users, grid operators, fossil incumbents, renewable firms, environmental constraints, markets, and regulators. A transition path gains stability only when these actors can reach payoff configurations that preserve positive standing rather than amplify defensive strategies and residual conflict. BU235 compares an aggressive transition path with a weak-persistent path. The aggressive path rapidly retires fossil assets and assumes grid reconstruction and social adaptation will follow; it tends to concentrate C_fric, amplify Xi_res, increase BBC, destabilize GamePayoff, and create fragile or negative standing. The weak-persistent path phases retirement, preserves reserve capacity, invests in storage and grid control, compensates affected regions, retrains workers, and validates distributed resources in stages; it lowers effective friction and preserves a positive weak-persistent evolution channel. The final thesis is direct: energy transition becomes real only when it can pay its own movement. A path that counts renewable potential while hiding stranded assets, grid instability, employment shock, policy lock-in, behavioral resistance, and security residuals is not a transition with standing; it is an unpriced projection. BU235 forces the transition path onto the settlement surface and asks one hard question: after ΔPotential, C_fric, Xi_res, BBC, and game-adjusted payoffs are all counted, does the transition still stand?

• openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21066920first seen 2026-07-21 04:50:35