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インドにおける太陽光主導ネットゼロ経路の物理的実現可能性評価：電力需要・土地利用・重要鉱物制約

Assessing the Physical Feasibility of a Solar-Dominant Net-Zero Pathway in India: Electricity Demand, Land Availability and Critical Mineral Constraints (原題)

A. Akilesh, K. Damodaran

International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-29#エネルギー転換経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.11433
原典: https://journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm/article/download/11433/9134
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

インドの2070年ネットゼロに向け、都市化を長期ドライバーとするARDLモデルで電力需要を2070年まで低・中・高シナリオで予測。必要太陽光容量を不毛地と世界銀埋蔵量に照らして評価した。高需要シナリオでは数テラワット級の容量が必要となり、土地と銀供給の双方に大きな制約が生じる。高効率化で土地利用を減らすと鉱物依存が強まる「土地―鉱物パラドックス」を指摘し、需要抑制・空間計画・素材効率技術の統合を求める。

English

Using an ARDL model with urbanisation as the long-run driver, this study projects India's electricity demand to 2070 under low, base, and high scenarios and translates them into required solar capacity. Comparing against barren land and global silver reserves, higher-demand scenarios push solar capacity into the multi-terawatt range, straining both land and silver supply. The authors identify a land-mineral paradox: efficiency gains that reduce land use may intensify critical-mineral dependence, arguing for demand moderation, spatial planning, and material-efficient technologies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX政策にとって、再エネ大量導入に伴う土地・重要鉱物制約は他人事ではない。特に太陽光パネルの銀需要は日本企業の調達戦略や資源外交に直結し、需要抑制と空間計画の重要性を示す示唆は第7次エネルギー基本計画やGX推進戦略の議論にも通じる。

In the global GX context

This paper adds a physical-feasibility lens to the global net-zero pathway literature, highlighting that solar-dominant transitions face land and critical-mineral bottlenecks that are often absent from integrated assessment models. It informs ISSB/TCFD physical-risk and transition-planning discussions by quantifying material dependencies (silver) that companies and investors must disclose under emerging nature- and resource-related frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides an integrated demand-land-mineral framework that can be adapted to other emerging economies and highlights the need for material-constrained energy transition modelling.

🏢実務担当者:Signals that solar procurement strategies should account for silver supply risk and land-use constraints, and that demand-side measures can reduce exposure to these bottlenecks.

🏛政策担当者:Underscores the need for spatial planning, demand moderation, and material-efficiency incentives in national solar missions to avoid resource lock-in.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Achieving India’s 2070 net-zero target will require rapid expansion of renewable electricity, with solar power expected to play a dominant role. However, the literature lacks an integrated framework that jointly examines electricity demand growth, land constraints, and critical mineral dependence. This study evaluates whether a solar-dominant electricity pathway for India remains viable when long-run demand growth is evaluated alongside land and critical mineral constraints. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with urbanisation as the long-run driver and GDP per capita as a short-run factor, electricity demand is projected to 2070 under Low, Base, and High scenarios. The results indicate that urbanisation acts as a strong structural driver of long-run electricity demand in India. These projections are translated into required solar capacity and evaluated against India’s available barren land and global silver reserves. The analysis show that higher demand scenarios push solar capacity into the multi-terawatt range, creating substantial pressure on both land availability and silver supply. Taken together, the findings reveal a land-mineral paradox in which attempts to reduce land use through higher-efficiency photovoltaic technologies may intensify dependence on critical minerals. The study underscores the importance of integrating demand moderation, spatial planning, and material-efficient technologies in solar transition strategies.

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