Economic Model and Simulation Data for Molasses-Based Bioethanol and BDC Framework

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Offers a rigorous stochastic NPV modeling approach for biofuel projects with carbon revenue streams, useful for comparative analysis in other geographies.

🏢実務担当者:Biofuel producers and investors in Southeast Asia can use the BDC pricing logic to assess project bankability under volatile fuel and feedstock prices.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need for gasoline subsidy reform or complementary carbon pricing to make bioethanol blending economically feasible and NDC-aligned.

This dataset supports the assessment of the economic viability of molasses-based bioethanol in Indonesia and the development of a Biofuel Decarbonisation Certificate (BDC) framework as a market-based policy instrument to accelerate bioethanol deployment. The research hypothesis is that bioethanol adoption is primarily constrained by the persistent price gap with subsidised gasoline, which reduces economic incentives for fuel blending and limits market competitiveness. This study proposes a BDC scheme that leverages the decarbonisation potential of sugarcane molasses while creating incentives across the bioethanol value chain. The framework aims to improve the economic feasibility of bioethanol blending by incorporating carbon value into the biofuel market and addressing existing policy and market barriers. The dataset contains input parameters, model calculations, and simulation outputs used to evaluate three main aspects: (1) the economic viability of molasses-based bioethanol production, (2) BDC pricing requirements and feasible blending pathways, and (3) potential greenhouse gas emission reductions in relation to Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets. The economic viability of the bioethanol pathway was assessed using net present value (NPV) analysis. The stochastic model incorporated Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to represent the uncertainty of bioethanol and molasses prices, with NPV distributions generated through Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that while the deterministic assessment suggests a positive NPV, incorporating market volatility significantly changes the economic performance. The stochastic model produces a negative mean NPV, highlighting the high financial risk associated with bioethanol deployment in Indonesia, with an average NPV of −USD 5.4 billion for the E5 blending scenario nationwide. The BDC framework translates the existing price gap between blended biofuels and subsidised gasoline into an equivalent carbon certificate value required to bridge the competitiveness gap. The estimated certificate prices are evaluated against the EU ETS benchmark price of USD 70/tCO₂e, where values below this threshold are considered indicative of economically feasible blending pathways. The result highlights the need for gasoline subsidy reform or alternative policy mechanisms to improve bioethanol market competitiveness. Under a gasoline price scenario of IDR 12,750/L, the analysis identifies E13 as the minimum blending level required to achieve certificate prices below the benchmark threshold. This dataset was compiled from publicly available sources, including Indonesian government reports and policy documents, academic literature, global energy statistics, and emissions reports. The accompanying workbook presents the complete modelling process, covering the research background, input parameters, calculation steps, and final outcomes.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.17632/yrjrd8hvyc.1first seen 2026-08-02 04:53:48