将来気候変動シナリオに基づく既存水力発電のリスク分析
Risk Analysis of Existing Hydropower Based on Future Climate Change Scenario (原題)
Khuwa Prasad Paudel, Shankar Lamichhane, Rabi Marasini, Sunil Paudel, Indra Prasad Timilsina
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ネパールのModi Khola水力発電所を対象に、CMIP6の8気候モデルとSSP2-4.5・SSP5-8.5シナリオを用い、2026〜2100年の発電ポテンシャルリスクを定量評価した。基準発電量92.50GWhでは最大16%超の減少と53〜86%の目標未達リスク、81GWhでは6〜38%のリスクが示された。高排出シナリオほどリスクが増大し、近未来に最大リスクが現れる。
English
This study quantifies climate-change risk to the Modi Khola hydropower plant in Nepal from 2026-2100 using eight CMIP6 GCMs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Against a 92.50 GWh baseline, generation declines up to 16% with failure risk of 53-86%; against 81 GWh, risk ranges 6-38%. Risk rises with higher emission scenarios and peaks in the near future.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも水力は重要な再エネ電源であり、気候変動による流況変化は長期の電源計画・アセットマネジメントに影響する。SSBJやTCFDの物理的リスク開示を検討する企業にとって、定量リスク評価手法の参考事例となる。
In the global GX context
As TCFD/ISSB require physical climate risk disclosure, this study offers a replicable quantitative method for assessing hydrological risk to hydropower assets. It contributes empirical evidence from a developing-economy context to global transition-risk scholarship.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候シナリオと水力発電リスクを結びつける定量手法の事例として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:自社の水力・再エネ資産の物理的リスク評価や長期電源計画に応用できる。
🏛政策担当者:気候変動適応策やエネルギー安全保障の政策立案に、定量的リスク情報を提供する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change has interrupted the global hydrological cycle affecting water resource management and hydropower production. This study conducts a quantitative risk analysis of the Modi Khola Hydroelectric Power Plant. The study analyzes risks on existing hydropower potential for the duration of 2026 to 2100 due to climate change. From eight selected coupled model inter comparison project phase 6 global climate models representing four extreme climate corners, under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and high emission SSP 5 8.5 scenarios by using advanced envelope method, future streamflow projections at the dam site were adapted. The baseline energy potential of 92.50 GWh and 81 GWh were utilized to identify the energy production risk. Energy generation, compared with 92.50 GWh, shows declines by 0.41% to 16.16%, except NESM3 increases from 5.57% to 7.73% and with 81 GWh baselines, improves from-4.26% to 23.03%. The risk rises with higher energy production, particularly under SSP 5-8.5 however, SSP 2-4.5 consistently reveals lower risk for the tenure. The greatest significant risks are seen during the near future then slightly declines by the mid and far future. The quantitative risk analysis shows that at 81 GWh production target, failure risk ranges from 6% to 38% across scenarios. At 92.50 GWh target, risk increased drastically to 53% to 86%. The 81 GWh level generally represents moderate to significant risk, whereas 92.50 GWh target represents the significant risk category across all future periods and models.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3126/east.v2i2.99476first seen 2026-09-20 04:35:08
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