西バルカン地域の建設業における気候脆弱性と適応経路：コソボのケーススタディ（2014–2026年）
Climate vulnerability and adaptation pathways for construction in the Western Balkans: a Kosovo case study (2014–2026) (原題)
Muhamet Ahmeti, Bard Bajçinovci
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
コソボの建設セクターを対象に、気象記録・建物監査・保険請求・専門家インタビューを統合し、気候脆弱性を定量化した研究。気温+2.8℃上昇や極端降水63%増を確認し、主要建材の耐用年数が25〜30%短縮、年間62日の遅延と建設コスト19.3%増を報告。累積損失はGDPの13.5%に達する一方、適応投資は損失の3.3%にとどまる。Eurocode準拠の段階的適応ブループリントを提示する。
English
Integrating meteorological records, building audits, insurance claims, and expert interviews, this study quantifies climate vulnerability in Kosovo's construction sector. It finds +2.8°C warming, 63% more extreme precipitation, 25–30% reductions in material service life, 62 annual delay days, and 19.3% cost increases. Cumulative losses reach 13.5% of GDP while adaptation investment is only 3.3% of losses; a phased Eurocode-aligned adaptation blueprint is proposed.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業の海外建設・インフラ事業における物理的リスク評価や、TCFD/ISSBの物理的リスク開示の実証手法として参考になる。特に建材の耐用年数変化を定量化した点は、長期の適応計画や資産評価に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper offers an empirically calibrated framework for physical climate risk assessment in construction, relevant to TCFD/ISSB physical risk disclosure and adaptation finance. Its quantification of material service-life degradation and delay-cost correlations provides transferable methods for emerging economies facing similar climate stresses.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候リスクの定量化手法（建材劣化関数、遅延コスト相関）の実証例として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:海外建設プロジェクトの物理的リスク評価や適応投資の優先順位付けに活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:適応投資の不足と損失の大きさを示し、気候適応政策の必要性を裏付ける。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change significantly impacts the construction sector in the Western Balkans; however, systematicquantification of these effects remains limited, particularly in post-conflict emerging economies. This studyaddresses this gap by integrating high-resolution meteorological records from 45 homogenized stations with150 building-level structural audits, 1 340 insurance claims, and 30 semi-structured expert interviews to quantifyclimate vulnerability and adaptation pathways in Kosovo over the 2014–2026 period. The results demonstratethat Kosovo experienced a statistically significant temperature increase of +2.8 °C (p < 0.001) and a 63% increasein extreme precipitation events relative to the 1981–2010 baseline, substantially exceeding regional averages.Material service life declined markedly across key construction materials: ordinary Portland cement concretefrom 50 to 35 years (30% reduction), carbon-steel reinforcement from 75 to 56 years (25% reduction), and SBSmodified bitumen roofing membranes from 25 to 18 years (28% reduction). Projects averaged 62 calendar daysof delay annually, with construction costs increasing by 19.3%. Despite cumulative economic losses reaching€2.21 billion (approximately 13.5% of Kosovo’s 2025 GDP), proactive adaptation investment remained criticallylow at €72 million, representing only 3.3% of total losses. This study presents a novel, empirically calibratedframework for quantifying climate-induced vulnerability and identifying robust adaptation pathways, deliveringvalidated degradation functions, delay-cost correlations, and a phased adaptation blueprint aligned withEurocode standards. The findings offer transferable insights for similar emerging and post-conflict economiesfacing accelerated urbanization, credit constraints, and governance fragmentation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.4995/vlc.2026.25929first seen 2026-11-06 05:39:02
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